***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.6 7.1 0.6 63.6 60.5 4.9 6.1 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.0 6.7 0.5 59.3 59.4 4.8 5.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.4 7.1 0.6 63.8 60.5 6.7 7.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.3 4.7 0.8 69.3 65.5 1.0 2.1 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.5 5.0 0.6 63.9 61.3 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.7 2.7 0.6 64.5 61.5 2.8 3.7 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.2 6.2 6.7 0.5 58.8 59.3 4.7 6.0 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -1.1 2.5 0.4 58.8 58.0 -2.3 -1.6 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.1 5.0 0.5 63.7 60.5 4.5 5.7 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.0 3.3 0.4 60.4 58.1 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 4.3 0.4 59.8 59.3 4.4 5.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.6 3.5 0.4 59.8 59.8 3.1 4.2 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.2 3.1 0.4 56.3 57.7 3.9 4.9 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.1 4.9 0.5 63.6 60.0 5.3 5.9 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.5 5.6 0.6 64.4 62.2 5.3 5.7 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.8 3.9 0.5 62.6 60.7 4.9 5.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.3 6.6 0.6 61.0 60.1 4.8 6.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.0 3.7 2.9 0.6 66.0 62.2 3.0 3.4 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 6.7 0.5 61.2 59.6 4.6 5.7 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 62.7 61.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.2 6.4 0.5 64.3 60.6 4.4 5.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.6 6.5 0.5 62.2 60.0 4.4 5.2 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.9 6.6 0.5 64.0 59.9 4.2 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.0 4.9 0.6 66.5 61.8 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.3 6.0 0.6 64.3 61.7 4.6 5.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.3 2.9 0.5 63.4 60.8 4.0 4.7 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.7 6.6 0.6 63.7 60.9 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.1 4.9 0.7 66.4 63.5 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 3.4 3.4 2.3 0.6 64.5 62.0 1.6 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.7 6.9 0.5 60.0 59.5 5.0 6.0 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------