***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.9 7.0 7.1 1.1 63.4 61.7 5.2 6.4 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.8 6.4 0.7 56.4 58.1 5.0 5.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.3 7.0 0.9 61.3 60.6 7.0 7.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 4.0 3.6 4.7 1.4 68.0 64.4 1.0 1.7 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.6 5.3 1.2 66.1 63.3 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 4.9 5.1 3.2 1.5 72.8 67.7 2.8 4.2 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.1 6.5 0.8 57.1 58.6 5.1 5.7 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -0.1 -0.3 2.8 1.1 66.3 64.0 -2.3 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.3 5.2 1.1 65.3 63.1 4.5 5.8 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.2 3.5 1.1 64.8 62.9 4.8 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.3 6.2 4.6 1.1 66.6 63.4 4.7 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.1 3.9 1.3 69.3 65.1 2.4 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 5.9 6.0 3.7 1.2 67.1 64.6 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.8 4.7 0.9 59.9 60.2 5.6 5.9 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.1 5.8 1.1 68.7 64.1 5.5 6.6 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 7.0 6.7 4.3 1.3 68.8 64.8 5.2 6.1 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.1 6.1 0.7 56.7 57.2 4.9 6.1 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.2 4.3 3.1 1.3 66.8 63.9 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.9 6.4 0.7 57.3 58.3 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 67.2 64.9 -0.2 0.8 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.5 6.4 1.1 64.0 61.8 4.7 5.9 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.6 6.1 0.7 54.8 57.0 5.0 5.5 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 6.1 6.3 0.8 58.3 59.0 4.5 5.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.3 4.9 1.1 62.4 61.8 5.0 5.4 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.7 6.2 1.2 63.5 62.3 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 5.8 5.9 3.7 1.6 73.4 68.3 3.8 4.6 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.9 7.0 6.8 1.2 63.6 62.0 5.2 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 5.5 5.5 5.1 1.3 69.4 64.5 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.1 3.5 2.2 1.1 63.6 63.5 1.7 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.2 6.7 0.8 56.9 59.1 5.3 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------