***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.9 5.6 0.5 60.9 58.7 3.3 4.2 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.9 5.4 0.6 61.7 59.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.6 5.9 0.6 63.0 60.2 6.2 6.8 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 2.3 1.7 3.6 1.2 68.6 67.4 0.3 0.7 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 4.7 3.9 4.1 0.6 61.4 59.7 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.1 0.8 -0.1 47.3 48.7 1.4 2.3 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.5 5.1 5.4 0.6 62.8 60.2 3.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -3.6 0.7 -0.4 38.7 43.7 -3.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.5 3.9 0.4 57.1 58.5 3.2 4.1 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.2 3.7 1.7 -0.1 45.4 48.4 3.0 4.3 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.0 3.2 0.1 52.2 52.9 2.8 3.9 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.8 1.8 2.0 -0.1 46.0 48.7 1.2 2.3 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.8 1.8 -0.4 40.4 44.1 1.9 3.5 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.5 3.7 0.5 59.7 57.9 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 5.5 4.7 4.3 0.6 60.9 60.3 3.2 4.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.1 2.9 0.3 55.0 55.1 3.5 4.8 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.5 5.5 0.8 65.3 63.0 4.2 4.7 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 2.7 2.3 1.9 0.6 60.9 60.3 1.2 2.0 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.7 5.4 0.6 62.3 60.0 3.7 4.3 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 50.1 54.1 -1.4 -0.6 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.7 5.0 5.2 0.5 58.8 58.7 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.2 5.5 0.6 63.1 61.0 3.2 3.9 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 4.9 4.4 5.3 0.6 63.3 60.6 3.0 4.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.2 4.1 0.7 63.5 61.6 3.1 3.9 5.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.3 5.0 0.6 62.4 60.0 3.4 4.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.6 1.4 -0.1 45.7 49.1 2.2 2.8 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.9 5.3 0.5 61.3 58.7 4.1 5.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 3.8 3.3 3.7 0.8 63.3 62.6 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.2 2.3 1.1 0.7 61.6 60.7 0.3 1.8 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.4 5.6 0.5 62.0 59.5 3.7 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------