***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 55.5 52.5 47.8 90.2 48.9 46.0 36.6 52.9 60.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.1 37.0 44.0 94.2 51.3 48.8 28.2 36.8 48.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 40.4 51.4 45.1 86.8 46.1 44.3 43.0 54.4 58.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 49.1 69.1 55.4 94.3 52.4 45.8 58.2 67.0 86.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 42.7 50.0 50.4 87.5 45.7 43.9 45.6 54.4 63.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 34.9 43.9 58.0 90.7 44.0 44.6 37.7 47.5 66.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 24.5 37.5 45.8 98.8 56.3 51.6 25.0 34.6 50.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 62.5 71.6 55.4 89.1 44.1 43.4 62.3 74.7 87.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 37.7 45.6 51.1 87.3 47.5 44.2 32.5 49.9 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 40.6 52.0 57.0 87.9 44.6 43.3 37.6 60.0 80.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 39.9 45.2 49.6 86.8 43.0 42.9 38.8 52.5 71.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 35.8 41.2 50.5 90.8 45.2 44.7 35.9 45.4 59.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 38.7 50.9 57.8 93.9 45.6 46.6 40.5 53.4 64.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 47.2 58.9 56.9 88.2 45.6 44.0 49.6 60.2 65.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 37.1 58.5 54.2 99.9 60.0 48.8 38.7 48.2 62.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 39.0 52.8 53.2 92.2 47.8 45.9 45.3 53.7 63.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.3 38.7 44.0 97.7 57.4 50.2 27.5 35.0 44.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 35.3 43.4 59.1 86.0 40.6 41.2 34.2 51.1 59.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 27.7 34.4 43.8 92.2 49.9 47.7 31.3 34.5 53.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 34.0 42.4 61.6 85.4 35.7 39.2 40.8 52.3 66.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 35.8 42.5 47.8 87.3 47.3 43.9 35.4 42.8 60.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 30.1 46.9 45.6 99.6 60.1 51.2 33.5 43.6 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 33.8 43.2 44.2 88.9 48.0 45.5 35.5 44.0 52.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 42.2 53.1 52.9 85.3 42.8 41.7 44.9 57.8 63.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 57.1 54.8 54.9 91.6 55.2 45.6 48.7 53.8 59.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 33.3 44.4 52.7 90.9 44.3 44.7 38.0 47.8 53.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 60.9 58.1 52.1 91.5 52.2 46.4 45.2 57.2 65.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 38.7 53.6 54.4 96.6 55.5 47.3 35.6 49.1 58.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 49.9 56.1 59.2 84.2 37.3 39.5 54.9 68.3 80.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.2 34.7 44.7 92.3 48.4 47.9 30.1 35.6 45.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------