***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.3 22.8 13.4 114.6 70.6 58.7 8.3 13.1 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.6 12.5 127.6 68.2 57.2 5.2 8.6 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.5 19.3 12.6 113.4 69.0 59.0 7.8 9.8 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.9 31.1 16.3 137.0 77.2 58.9 12.0 15.1 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.9 24.9 14.9 131.1 75.0 61.1 5.8 8.0 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.9 17.3 18.9 137.9 73.2 60.9 6.1 10.0 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.5 9.6 12.6 133.4 69.6 58.7 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 26.9 35.5 19.3 151.4 80.1 66.8 13.7 17.6 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 20.0 24.2 15.2 127.1 77.0 62.5 8.1 9.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 22.3 27.2 18.9 140.9 80.0 66.0 8.8 13.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 21.6 26.0 15.5 143.1 78.4 63.5 9.0 14.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.1 23.5 17.0 152.0 77.6 64.6 8.9 11.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.3 23.4 18.6 143.5 74.6 61.0 9.2 15.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.3 22.1 18.1 132.5 70.5 62.1 7.2 11.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.2 27.5 16.7 148.8 79.2 58.4 5.5 9.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.1 22.2 16.4 141.4 76.1 61.4 6.6 14.3 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.6 17.7 13.3 146.4 73.9 59.7 5.1 10.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 19.0 21.5 19.8 134.6 75.6 64.6 6.0 12.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.7 12.5 125.0 67.0 57.3 5.7 9.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 21.3 25.8 22.2 146.3 77.2 67.4 7.3 9.7 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 17.3 20.5 13.8 122.9 74.6 60.8 5.8 8.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.8 16.7 14.6 159.4 74.8 60.6 3.9 10.0 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.3 13.1 12.8 123.2 67.5 58.6 3.1 8.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.4 20.4 16.2 122.4 70.7 61.5 7.4 14.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.3 21.5 16.0 127.7 72.8 58.9 7.2 11.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.5 15.6 17.0 137.8 67.8 60.2 5.4 10.6 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.3 26.9 14.5 115.5 69.4 56.8 6.2 10.1 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.4 23.2 16.5 141.8 77.7 58.4 4.7 10.3 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 25.4 28.3 20.3 138.3 76.3 64.9 11.3 18.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.2 12.4 118.3 68.0 56.9 5.8 8.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------