***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.6 18.2 16.8 115.0 67.7 56.7 8.1 15.2 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.4 14.5 14.9 120.9 64.4 55.9 4.4 9.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.3 15.4 107.5 65.7 55.0 9.6 16.6 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 24.6 27.3 19.8 119.5 68.0 57.7 14.8 22.4 27.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.3 22.0 18.0 110.5 67.6 56.7 10.5 14.9 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.7 20.3 21.0 109.9 62.7 56.8 9.1 14.6 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.5 15.9 130.0 68.4 58.2 4.5 12.5 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 30.6 34.4 19.0 108.6 65.2 55.4 18.2 27.9 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 17.3 21.7 17.9 105.1 65.0 55.5 8.8 14.6 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.0 24.7 19.7 106.6 65.4 55.3 10.7 16.5 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.4 20.7 17.3 110.4 62.7 56.1 11.8 16.0 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 20.0 22.5 17.7 112.1 64.7 56.4 9.3 18.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 24.8 25.3 21.3 120.9 68.2 59.1 14.5 18.5 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 22.4 25.3 19.4 111.2 64.8 53.6 14.0 20.5 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.6 23.1 19.3 119.9 68.3 58.0 8.9 16.8 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.7 19.8 19.5 119.6 65.2 58.2 9.6 16.2 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.2 16.1 14.7 125.2 68.4 57.1 6.4 11.9 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.2 21.3 20.6 106.2 65.2 54.9 10.1 14.6 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.3 15.3 14.9 117.7 63.8 55.6 6.6 9.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.8 20.6 21.5 106.8 65.0 54.6 10.0 15.8 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.6 19.1 16.4 107.7 66.5 55.8 11.8 13.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.3 16.3 15.1 120.3 66.3 56.4 7.8 10.7 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.1 17.8 14.9 110.6 62.8 53.9 8.7 12.4 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.0 21.9 18.2 105.8 64.6 54.6 12.1 16.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.5 22.6 18.9 114.7 65.4 56.8 12.5 15.8 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.0 18.7 110.0 62.3 55.9 10.7 16.2 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.0 25.7 18.4 118.7 67.6 57.8 10.7 14.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.9 22.6 19.9 121.6 68.2 58.5 7.6 15.5 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 27.2 20.8 105.4 63.2 53.8 13.4 21.2 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 14.3 15.6 119.2 65.8 56.0 4.6 10.3 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------