***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.9 5.9 9.9 75.6 51.6 39.4 3.1 5.9 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.6 8.8 73.0 48.6 40.0 2.9 7.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.4 6.3 9.6 72.1 47.8 37.5 3.7 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.6 13.4 11.1 79.1 54.5 42.3 6.2 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.2 9.8 65.1 42.8 35.5 4.3 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.2 5.1 10.4 66.6 40.7 34.4 4.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.2 9.2 76.8 48.6 40.3 1.6 5.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 6.0 12.0 10.2 67.2 40.0 34.3 9.2 16.1 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.7 10.6 70.8 45.5 38.3 4.0 6.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.1 6.5 10.6 65.9 40.3 35.1 5.1 10.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.1 6.0 10.3 65.9 37.6 34.7 2.8 7.0 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.8 3.0 9.9 69.5 40.5 35.8 1.5 8.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.4 3.9 10.4 65.5 37.9 34.4 2.8 7.3 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.0 9.6 10.2 57.0 39.4 32.2 9.1 11.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.4 11.9 97.3 64.5 49.1 2.1 5.3 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.8 10.0 66.9 40.2 35.3 2.5 6.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.9 8.2 69.7 45.8 39.9 2.6 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 5.0 10.4 58.8 38.6 30.9 4.1 8.2 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 5.2 8.7 71.7 47.2 39.3 3.7 6.8 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 2.6 3.1 10.8 56.7 33.0 27.9 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.9 5.6 10.5 74.5 50.9 39.9 3.2 5.5 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.7 5.8 8.1 68.8 46.2 40.5 3.2 6.1 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.8 4.9 9.2 70.8 43.3 38.2 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.1 5.5 10.3 62.2 41.7 33.6 4.7 6.8 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.7 6.9 11.0 70.4 50.0 38.7 5.0 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.1 4.4 11.2 80.1 45.5 39.4 1.9 5.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.9 10.6 73.6 50.9 38.4 3.3 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.1 10.8 84.4 56.0 43.6 3.4 6.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 5.7 7.3 10.3 54.0 33.2 28.1 7.3 12.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.8 5.6 9.0 73.5 47.2 38.7 3.6 5.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------