***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.0 2.4 7.7 56.8 43.2 38.8 1.3 3.3 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.4 7.8 62.4 46.8 40.2 1.3 3.5 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.7 7.5 56.7 39.6 35.8 2.3 4.4 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.0 5.0 8.2 50.7 33.7 33.1 4.9 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.9 7.7 51.7 35.0 33.2 3.4 7.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.2 3.3 7.7 49.5 31.5 29.5 3.7 5.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.5 1.9 8.1 64.3 49.3 42.5 0.4 1.9 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 5.3 2.4 6.9 41.0 23.2 23.9 5.4 12.0 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.0 7.5 51.0 34.7 32.4 2.8 4.4 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.0 0.8 7.8 46.7 26.3 27.2 2.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 1.8 1.4 6.5 42.9 27.0 27.7 3.4 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.9 1.9 5.9 40.7 27.1 25.7 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.7 7.5 49.8 36.4 30.7 3.4 4.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.4 9.2 59.6 42.7 37.0 2.2 3.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.2 6.3 43.0 40.1 34.0 2.7 4.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.0 2.8 7.2 48.9 32.8 30.3 2.8 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.2 7.8 62.7 48.2 42.3 1.1 2.4 3.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 1.5 0.3 8.3 49.6 27.1 27.7 1.0 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.8 1.8 7.6 60.5 46.4 38.3 0.6 2.0 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 1.3 0.2 7.1 39.1 18.3 21.7 3.7 5.2 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.4 1.9 7.2 50.3 34.6 32.7 1.9 5.8 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.3 7.9 63.9 49.4 41.1 1.2 4.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.8 7.3 57.0 44.8 36.7 2.2 3.8 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.7 8.2 54.8 37.9 32.8 2.0 3.7 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.7 5.5 8.9 58.6 40.9 37.3 3.8 6.6 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.7 0.3 5.9 39.7 24.9 24.1 2.0 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.3 2.7 8.6 59.4 43.1 40.0 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.5 7.1 46.1 33.2 31.4 3.5 4.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 2.2 1.7 7.8 46.6 25.6 26.0 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.0 2.4 7.7 61.0 46.9 39.6 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------