***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 17.9 19.3 18.0 1.9 87.5 80.7 16.0 16.9 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 18.1 19.0 17.9 1.8 84.9 80.3 16.1 17.0 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 18.4 19.7 18.4 2.0 89.1 82.0 16.5 16.8 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 11.4 12.5 15.4 1.8 87.0 79.2 8.3 9.6 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 19.0 20.9 16.7 2.1 90.6 82.3 16.3 17.4 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 17.7 19.8 14.8 2.2 90.4 82.9 14.9 16.2 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 17.6 18.6 17.8 1.8 84.8 80.2 16.0 16.8 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 6.4 7.9 15.2 2.2 89.6 83.5 3.5 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 18.4 20.5 17.3 2.1 90.6 82.6 15.6 17.0 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 18.7 20.4 16.1 2.3 90.0 83.7 15.7 16.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 18.7 21.0 16.8 2.2 91.1 83.6 15.9 17.1 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 17.8 19.8 16.0 2.1 90.5 83.1 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 18.9 20.7 16.0 2.2 91.0 83.8 15.9 17.2 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 18.8 20.0 17.4 2.2 90.1 83.6 16.4 16.7 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.3 16.5 1.5 83.8 76.2 15.8 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 19.4 21.1 16.3 2.1 91.0 83.4 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 17.1 17.6 17.6 1.8 84.0 80.1 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 18.4 19.7 15.7 2.3 88.4 83.8 15.3 16.5 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 18.0 19.2 18.1 1.9 86.7 81.0 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 12.9 14.6 13.2 2.2 87.3 82.6 10.2 11.0 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 18.6 19.9 18.1 2.0 89.3 82.0 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 17.9 18.9 17.7 1.8 84.9 80.1 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 18.6 19.9 18.3 2.0 90.2 82.7 16.4 16.8 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 18.6 19.7 17.4 2.3 89.5 83.6 15.9 16.6 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 18.2 19.7 16.7 1.9 89.4 80.6 16.1 16.8 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 17.9 19.2 14.8 2.0 88.1 81.8 15.3 16.7 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 18.0 19.4 17.4 1.9 88.1 81.0 15.9 16.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 18.8 19.7 15.9 1.7 87.0 78.3 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 13.1 14.6 15.0 2.4 88.5 84.0 10.2 11.1 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 17.8 19.2 17.9 1.8 86.3 80.7 16.1 16.8 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------