***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 18.1 17.7 17.9 1.5 71.8 67.3 14.3 16.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 17.9 18.4 17.8 1.4 71.5 66.5 14.5 16.4 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 17.8 18.2 18.2 1.5 73.0 66.9 15.1 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 10.4 11.0 15.7 1.3 73.5 66.1 7.9 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 18.3 18.5 16.5 1.5 74.6 67.1 15.6 17.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.3 17.9 14.8 1.5 73.1 65.3 14.9 15.9 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 18.2 18.4 17.8 1.4 71.6 66.8 14.5 16.7 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 5.9 6.8 15.0 1.4 74.6 65.7 3.3 4.5 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 17.7 18.1 16.8 1.5 75.1 67.3 14.7 16.7 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 17.7 18.4 15.8 1.5 74.8 66.4 14.3 16.4 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 17.9 18.5 16.4 1.5 75.8 67.2 15.7 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 17.2 18.0 16.0 1.5 76.5 66.4 14.5 15.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 18.3 18.8 15.4 1.5 75.3 66.1 15.7 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 17.6 17.7 16.8 1.5 69.3 65.5 14.5 15.8 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.8 18.0 16.3 1.2 69.4 64.0 15.1 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 18.4 18.9 16.0 1.5 75.5 66.5 15.9 17.1 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.3 17.6 17.6 1.4 71.0 66.5 13.9 15.9 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.6 15.4 1.5 70.5 65.2 13.8 16.1 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 17.8 18.2 17.9 1.5 72.3 66.5 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.3 12.6 1.2 68.2 62.9 9.5 10.8 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 18.0 17.9 17.6 1.5 74.6 67.0 15.0 17.0 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 17.7 17.8 17.5 1.3 69.3 65.2 14.3 16.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 17.7 18.2 18.1 1.5 73.3 66.8 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 17.6 17.7 16.8 1.6 71.5 66.2 14.4 16.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 17.7 18.0 16.4 1.4 73.6 67.0 15.5 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 17.5 18.3 15.0 1.4 77.8 65.2 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.9 18.3 17.3 1.5 74.0 67.6 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 17.7 18.0 15.9 1.3 71.9 64.8 15.6 16.5 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 11.9 12.5 14.5 1.4 69.8 64.3 8.6 10.4 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 18.1 18.6 17.8 1.4 72.1 66.8 14.5 16.3 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------