***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 19.6 23.5 19.4 4.2 93.5 84.4 16.1 16.8 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 19.4 22.5 19.4 4.3 93.0 85.3 15.9 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 19.7 24.2 20.0 4.5 93.6 85.7 16.5 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 12.6 16.6 16.4 3.7 89.2 81.5 9.1 11.1 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 21.1 25.1 18.3 4.5 93.0 85.9 16.6 17.9 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 19.2 23.7 16.8 5.1 92.7 87.3 15.4 17.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 18.7 23.0 19.3 4.3 94.0 85.3 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 7.3 12.0 17.0 5.1 95.4 88.1 4.4 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 20.1 24.9 19.1 4.6 94.6 86.5 16.2 17.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 20.2 24.9 18.0 5.1 95.1 87.7 16.3 17.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 20.6 24.9 18.7 4.8 93.9 87.1 16.5 17.7 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 19.7 23.5 17.7 4.9 94.9 87.8 15.5 16.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 20.3 24.7 18.1 5.0 93.2 87.7 16.6 18.0 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 19.5 23.8 19.4 5.1 94.5 88.0 16.1 17.3 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 19.8 22.0 17.6 3.1 87.2 78.4 16.7 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 20.9 25.1 18.1 4.8 92.3 86.8 17.0 18.1 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 18.0 21.0 19.1 4.4 92.3 85.7 15.4 16.1 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 20.0 24.0 17.8 5.4 95.6 89.0 16.0 16.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 19.5 22.7 19.6 4.4 92.9 85.8 16.2 17.2 18.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 14.7 18.0 15.3 5.5 96.0 88.5 10.5 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 20.2 24.2 19.8 4.6 94.0 85.7 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 19.2 22.0 19.3 4.4 92.1 86.4 15.9 16.7 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 19.6 23.0 19.9 4.6 93.3 86.8 15.6 17.5 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 19.4 24.1 19.4 5.2 94.4 88.2 16.4 17.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 19.7 24.0 18.2 4.1 92.6 83.8 16.4 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 19.3 23.3 16.5 4.7 93.5 87.7 15.4 17.4 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 19.6 23.4 18.9 4.2 93.6 84.7 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 20.6 22.5 17.0 3.6 87.5 80.7 17.2 18.4 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 14.5 18.7 17.1 5.6 96.2 89.6 10.6 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 19.2 23.0 19.4 4.3 93.6 85.2 16.3 17.0 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------