***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 17.8 18.7 17.0 2.4 77.3 76.5 14.7 15.7 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.7 16.8 2.1 73.4 74.6 15.4 17.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.1 18.5 17.5 2.5 78.1 77.6 15.4 17.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 10.5 11.4 14.0 2.8 78.9 78.7 6.4 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 18.6 19.6 16.0 2.9 81.5 79.9 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 17.5 18.2 13.8 2.9 79.2 77.7 13.7 14.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.4 16.6 2.1 73.6 74.6 15.2 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 6.0 6.5 14.3 3.1 77.5 79.3 2.9 4.0 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 17.9 19.0 16.9 2.8 80.9 79.7 14.7 16.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 18.1 19.1 15.5 3.2 79.9 79.8 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 18.3 19.7 16.6 3.1 81.6 80.5 14.7 16.5 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 17.8 18.4 15.0 3.0 78.1 79.4 14.3 15.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 18.6 19.4 15.8 3.0 79.0 79.6 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.9 18.4 17.0 2.7 78.3 77.1 15.5 16.9 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 17.5 18.0 16.0 2.4 75.7 76.4 14.0 16.0 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 18.9 19.7 15.7 3.0 78.7 79.9 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.6 16.4 2.0 72.8 74.1 14.4 16.0 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 17.6 18.2 14.8 3.1 78.4 78.9 14.9 16.0 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.6 17.0 2.2 74.7 75.2 15.3 16.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 12.7 13.2 12.5 3.0 76.5 77.4 9.6 10.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 18.1 19.3 17.6 2.8 81.2 79.2 15.2 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.6 17.8 16.6 2.0 72.4 73.7 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 17.9 18.3 17.3 2.3 77.8 76.2 15.5 17.0 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 18.0 18.6 16.9 2.9 78.8 78.4 15.4 16.7 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.8 18.6 16.1 2.6 79.0 77.9 14.9 15.9 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 17.6 18.2 13.4 2.5 77.0 77.2 14.4 15.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.1 16.5 2.4 76.3 76.6 14.7 16.5 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 17.9 18.6 15.0 2.7 78.2 78.1 13.5 16.0 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 12.9 13.6 14.2 3.1 78.4 79.0 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 17.2 17.5 16.9 2.2 75.0 75.6 15.3 16.6 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------