***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 7.1 8.1 8.4 2.0 92.3 87.8 4.7 5.8 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 6.3 7.6 7.9 1.8 91.9 87.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 8.7 10.3 8.4 1.9 93.9 88.1 6.7 7.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 3.0 4.5 5.5 1.7 93.4 87.2 0.9 1.9 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 5.7 6.5 6.2 1.8 94.2 87.8 3.4 4.8 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 4.7 5.4 3.7 1.7 91.6 86.8 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 6.5 7.8 7.9 1.8 92.3 86.9 4.5 5.9 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 -0.7 0.6 3.9 1.8 92.9 88.7 -2.4 -1.7 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 6.2 6.8 6.2 1.6 91.8 86.3 4.3 5.7 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 6.3 7.1 4.7 1.7 91.6 87.4 4.6 5.6 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 6.1 7.1 5.4 1.6 93.4 86.6 4.2 5.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 4.8 5.6 4.7 1.7 93.0 87.9 3.2 4.3 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 5.7 6.2 4.2 1.5 90.7 84.1 3.8 4.9 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 6.8 7.8 6.2 1.6 91.7 86.8 5.1 5.9 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 7.0 7.6 6.3 1.4 90.1 83.8 5.2 5.7 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 6.8 7.5 4.9 1.6 92.8 86.2 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 6.6 7.7 7.7 1.8 91.8 86.9 4.8 6.0 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 4.2 4.9 4.3 1.8 94.0 88.5 2.7 3.4 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 6.6 7.4 7.9 1.8 92.5 87.7 4.4 5.6 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.0 94.8 90.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 6.5 7.0 7.7 1.8 92.4 87.1 4.3 5.7 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 5.9 6.8 7.6 1.7 91.7 86.8 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 6.3 6.9 7.7 1.8 93.1 88.0 4.2 4.9 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 6.5 7.1 6.1 1.6 93.0 87.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 6.6 7.8 7.3 2.0 93.2 88.2 4.6 5.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 5.5 6.0 3.8 1.4 90.3 84.3 3.8 4.7 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 7.4 8.6 8.0 2.0 92.7 87.7 5.1 6.1 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 5.2 5.7 5.6 1.5 92.5 84.5 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 3.6 5.3 3.7 1.8 94.8 89.4 1.6 2.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 6.9 8.0 8.1 1.9 92.3 87.6 4.9 6.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------