***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.6 8.8 0.5 57.4 57.4 6.5 7.3 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.5 8.3 0.4 56.4 56.0 5.5 7.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.9 8.7 0.4 57.8 57.3 7.8 8.3 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 4.2 3.9 6.0 0.5 61.9 58.9 1.9 3.3 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.8 5.8 6.3 0.5 59.8 58.5 4.5 5.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.1 4.3 0.6 66.0 61.4 4.1 4.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.4 7.3 8.3 0.3 55.9 55.5 6.2 7.2 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.1 -0.1 4.2 0.5 61.8 60.1 -1.7 -1.1 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.5 6.6 0.5 58.3 58.2 5.5 6.1 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.1 5.1 0.5 60.7 58.8 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.4 5.7 0.5 61.7 60.1 5.0 6.0 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 5.6 5.0 5.0 0.6 61.3 60.2 3.6 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.3 4.5 0.5 61.6 58.7 4.7 5.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.7 6.6 0.4 54.1 56.7 6.0 6.6 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 8.1 7.4 7.1 0.5 64.0 59.3 6.2 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.8 7.6 5.2 0.6 62.2 60.5 5.7 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.3 7.2 8.1 0.3 55.5 54.8 6.0 7.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.5 58.5 59.1 3.3 4.2 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.0 8.4 0.4 56.0 56.4 5.6 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 2.3 2.2 2.3 0.5 62.2 60.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.0 8.0 0.5 60.1 57.7 5.6 6.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.3 8.0 0.3 54.0 55.4 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.7 8.2 0.4 55.6 56.6 5.5 6.5 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.8 6.4 0.4 55.4 57.6 5.2 5.7 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.3 7.3 0.4 57.7 57.2 5.8 7.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.6 4.1 0.4 57.5 57.3 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.8 8.1 0.5 56.4 57.0 5.7 7.2 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.0 6.2 0.5 63.1 59.2 4.7 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.0 4.0 0.5 58.7 59.6 2.8 3.4 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.6 8.5 0.4 56.5 56.5 6.1 7.2 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------