***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 8.1 8.9 9.1 2.1 84.0 78.2 5.4 7.0 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 7.5 8.3 8.5 1.9 83.7 77.0 4.4 5.7 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 9.4 9.9 9.0 2.0 84.8 78.7 6.5 8.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 3.6 4.4 6.3 2.0 84.7 79.4 0.8 2.2 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 7.1 7.8 6.6 2.0 85.7 79.2 3.3 5.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 5.8 6.5 4.5 2.1 83.8 80.0 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 7.8 8.2 8.6 2.0 83.8 77.3 4.6 6.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 0.2 0.7 4.5 2.0 84.8 79.8 -2.4 -1.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 7.5 8.1 7.0 2.0 84.8 78.8 4.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 7.7 8.3 5.4 2.0 84.2 79.3 4.3 6.5 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 7.1 7.9 5.9 2.0 85.5 79.9 4.0 6.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 5.9 6.2 5.2 1.9 82.5 79.4 3.3 5.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 6.8 7.0 4.7 1.9 80.6 78.0 4.2 5.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 7.5 8.3 6.8 2.0 82.9 78.1 4.4 6.3 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 7.9 8.2 7.3 1.9 83.1 77.9 5.4 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 7.9 8.1 5.4 2.0 83.5 79.4 4.6 6.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 7.5 8.0 8.5 2.0 84.0 77.3 5.3 6.2 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 5.3 6.2 5.1 2.1 85.7 80.9 2.5 4.1 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 7.3 8.3 8.5 1.9 83.7 77.5 4.8 5.8 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 3.1 3.6 2.8 2.2 86.9 81.6 0.0 1.5 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 7.9 8.5 8.4 2.1 84.9 78.9 4.2 6.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 6.8 7.2 8.2 1.9 84.6 77.4 4.4 5.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 7.3 7.8 8.5 2.0 83.2 78.3 4.7 5.6 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 6.9 7.3 6.7 2.0 84.5 79.2 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 7.6 8.4 7.7 2.1 85.0 78.2 4.4 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 6.6 7.0 4.3 1.8 81.3 78.1 4.4 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.6 9.2 8.5 2.1 84.6 78.1 4.5 5.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 6.3 6.9 6.5 1.9 82.6 77.7 3.6 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 4.2 4.7 4.5 2.2 87.3 82.2 1.3 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 7.7 8.7 8.7 1.9 83.5 77.2 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------