***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 7.6 9.1 9.5 3.9 94.7 87.9 5.5 6.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 6.9 8.7 8.9 3.7 94.8 88.4 4.6 5.9 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 9.4 11.9 9.3 3.6 94.7 88.4 7.2 8.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 3.8 6.8 6.1 3.2 92.7 85.9 1.7 2.1 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 6.0 7.4 7.1 3.3 91.9 86.7 3.6 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 5.0 6.7 4.6 3.3 92.4 88.2 2.6 4.0 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 7.3 9.4 8.9 3.7 93.8 87.8 5.2 5.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 0.5 2.0 4.7 3.3 93.6 89.3 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 6.9 8.8 7.0 3.1 94.4 87.8 4.7 5.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 7.0 8.5 5.5 3.2 93.7 88.7 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 6.8 7.8 6.2 2.9 90.5 86.5 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 5.6 6.7 5.5 3.1 92.3 87.7 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 6.1 7.1 5.0 2.8 91.1 85.9 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 7.5 9.4 6.9 3.1 93.2 88.3 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 7.4 8.8 6.8 2.6 90.1 83.4 5.8 6.3 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 7.2 8.8 5.6 2.9 91.4 86.3 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 7.5 9.0 8.6 3.5 94.7 87.6 5.6 5.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 4.5 5.2 5.2 3.3 92.1 88.3 2.1 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 6.5 8.9 8.8 3.6 95.4 89.1 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 93.9 90.2 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 7.1 9.0 8.5 3.3 93.3 87.5 4.9 5.4 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 6.2 8.4 8.4 3.3 95.1 88.2 4.8 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 6.5 7.8 8.6 3.5 95.5 89.9 4.2 5.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 6.9 8.2 6.9 3.1 92.7 87.6 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 7.0 8.6 8.5 3.9 95.2 88.0 4.7 5.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 5.6 7.6 4.7 3.0 92.8 86.5 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.4 10.2 9.1 3.9 94.5 87.6 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 6.0 7.4 6.2 2.8 91.3 84.0 2.7 4.0 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 4.3 5.9 4.5 3.4 92.1 88.9 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 7.3 9.8 9.2 3.7 95.6 88.7 5.1 6.2 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------