***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 5.2 5.5 6.4 1.5 72.2 70.0 3.4 4.2 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.1 5.2 5.8 1.3 72.7 70.7 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 7.5 8.1 6.5 1.5 71.4 70.5 5.8 6.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 0.9 1.7 3.5 1.3 70.0 70.2 -0.6 0.6 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 4.2 4.1 4.7 1.3 69.0 68.6 2.2 3.0 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 2.4 2.8 1.6 0.9 60.8 62.6 1.4 2.1 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.7 5.8 1.3 72.0 69.9 3.4 4.0 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -1.6 -1.3 2.0 1.3 70.4 68.5 -4.2 -3.0 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 4.0 5.0 4.2 0.8 61.8 63.4 2.9 3.6 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 5.2 5.4 2.8 1.1 66.3 65.8 2.9 4.0 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.9 65.0 63.4 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 3.7 3.6 3.0 1.1 67.0 65.2 1.3 2.8 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 3.5 3.6 2.6 0.6 59.5 57.9 2.1 3.4 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 4.8 5.2 4.3 1.2 65.8 67.3 3.7 4.6 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 4.3 4.3 4.1 0.7 61.0 62.1 3.2 4.1 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 4.7 5.6 3.2 0.8 63.0 62.2 3.3 4.4 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.4 5.6 5.7 1.3 73.4 70.9 3.8 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 2.4 2.3 2.5 1.3 67.3 67.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 4.9 5.3 5.8 1.3 72.4 70.5 3.3 4.0 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 47 53 100 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.5 68.3 68.5 -1.6 -1.2 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 49 51 100 5.1 4.9 5.8 1.2 66.3 67.4 3.0 4.1 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 4.4 4.6 5.8 1.3 73.3 71.5 3.0 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 4.4 4.6 5.6 1.3 70.0 69.6 2.9 3.5 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 4.3 5.1 4.4 1.1 66.7 66.4 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 5.2 5.4 5.7 1.5 72.6 70.4 3.9 4.4 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.5 54.1 56.1 2.2 2.8 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 6.1 6.2 6.1 1.5 72.0 69.3 3.8 5.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 2.5 3.7 3.6 1.0 65.0 64.6 1.6 2.3 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 1.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 69.0 68.2 -0.1 1.0 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.7 6.3 6.1 1.4 72.7 70.8 3.6 4.6 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------