***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 33.5 38.9 44.7 71.7 27.4 29.5 43.2 52.7 59.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 26.1 27.3 40.6 74.1 29.1 32.1 29.0 36.8 48.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 37.2 42.0 46.7 76.8 30.7 33.3 43.7 51.6 62.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 50.6 50.3 47.9 69.8 24.1 30.2 57.0 70.2 83.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 42.9 44.5 49.0 74.0 29.0 32.4 45.3 53.4 64.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 31.7 35.9 59.3 81.5 32.5 33.7 36.6 45.6 69.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 22.5 20.8 40.1 73.4 28.8 31.8 25.5 37.0 53.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 61.3 68.2 58.6 81.6 36.0 36.4 65.8 76.4 90.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 35.1 34.3 51.5 76.0 31.0 33.7 34.7 48.8 59.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 37.4 46.8 60.3 80.4 34.9 35.8 43.8 58.5 80.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 36.6 39.8 49.7 75.7 32.2 33.0 39.9 50.1 73.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 36.3 36.3 50.3 78.4 33.1 34.5 36.3 46.5 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 39.3 43.3 55.9 78.0 31.4 32.6 43.9 54.1 65.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 42.8 51.8 63.0 81.8 34.8 35.8 51.1 60.9 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 35.5 39.9 43.5 68.6 27.3 30.2 41.7 49.8 60.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 38.4 39.6 51.1 76.1 31.2 32.5 41.8 54.4 65.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 26.0 27.3 38.8 72.4 30.1 32.0 28.7 37.8 46.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 35.8 40.2 67.6 85.7 39.7 38.9 36.3 47.8 57.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 27.8 26.6 42.7 75.6 29.4 32.9 30.2 41.1 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 33.5 45.4 74.0 89.5 42.8 41.7 38.7 47.6 66.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 33.6 35.4 47.7 74.1 29.2 32.2 36.4 41.8 63.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 27.7 37.6 41.8 74.1 32.0 32.5 38.5 44.4 52.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 30.0 38.0 47.4 78.3 30.8 34.7 39.0 44.3 55.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 39.2 47.2 59.6 82.8 35.9 36.9 45.9 54.7 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 40.5 43.3 49.0 69.3 23.7 28.4 47.6 55.8 59.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 31.0 37.5 52.5 77.7 29.4 32.8 39.7 48.1 59.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 36.1 42.2 47.3 70.8 25.9 29.1 45.1 58.0 65.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 37.4 40.2 47.2 71.4 27.9 30.8 40.9 49.2 58.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 49.7 56.1 70.7 88.1 40.7 40.7 54.3 66.3 81.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 24.6 25.9 42.2 74.7 28.8 31.9 28.3 38.5 52.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------