***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.7 15.7 17.7 104.7 59.9 48.6 5.6 13.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.1 14.6 99.3 58.7 48.8 4.7 9.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.1 18.5 17.5 109.4 59.9 50.6 6.1 12.2 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 14.0 21.5 18.2 102.8 60.8 49.1 14.8 20.1 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.6 17.6 18.8 106.7 62.0 49.2 10.4 15.1 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.3 23.2 20.2 108.7 63.0 49.8 8.8 15.6 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.8 13.4 14.8 101.4 59.5 49.7 3.8 10.3 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.8 29.5 19.7 109.2 62.5 51.8 17.9 25.6 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.1 16.5 20.0 110.3 60.2 50.2 6.9 13.1 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.1 19.3 21.4 110.1 61.9 51.2 12.0 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.2 17.4 106.7 62.2 50.1 11.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.1 18.4 17.2 107.8 63.5 51.8 10.2 13.9 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.6 22.5 19.3 105.9 59.8 50.7 12.1 16.4 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.2 22.4 22.2 109.4 62.3 50.4 14.3 20.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 8.4 19.9 16.2 100.4 61.2 47.1 7.6 14.1 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.2 18.2 108.1 61.8 51.0 9.5 14.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.3 13.6 95.5 56.5 48.1 4.3 7.1 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 10.0 16.1 24.1 116.5 66.5 53.2 11.1 14.4 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.9 13.7 15.0 99.0 57.6 48.3 7.2 12.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.8 19.6 25.1 117.5 66.7 54.0 9.3 15.6 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.2 13.8 18.9 111.1 61.2 50.2 7.5 12.0 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.1 11.6 13.8 92.3 52.7 46.8 5.2 11.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.7 18.7 16.5 103.6 60.6 49.1 8.5 15.0 19.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.0 21.9 21.8 116.4 66.1 52.3 9.2 13.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.2 16.8 19.4 102.0 58.9 48.2 7.5 13.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.6 17.4 101.6 57.0 48.3 10.4 14.1 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.8 20.5 18.5 102.7 59.1 48.7 7.5 15.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 17.4 21.0 17.6 104.8 61.5 48.6 7.4 14.4 21.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 16.1 24.7 24.9 120.0 67.8 54.3 14.3 23.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.5 12.6 15.7 102.4 60.1 49.7 5.2 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------