***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.4 2.0 12.0 77.9 42.8 38.8 1.6 3.1 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.0 6.1 11.8 86.2 52.9 40.9 2.1 4.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.9 13.3 89.3 50.0 41.9 2.5 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.3 9.6 12.4 76.7 46.7 41.6 4.3 9.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.5 4.8 13.5 85.3 47.7 43.2 2.5 5.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.5 14.9 83.6 44.6 43.6 2.2 4.8 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 1.3 3.7 11.2 80.9 49.1 39.5 0.7 4.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.0 15.2 15.6 91.8 51.0 45.4 6.2 15.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.5 14.5 91.9 53.0 45.3 4.1 6.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.6 16.5 95.4 54.4 46.0 3.9 8.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.8 14.2 84.2 47.4 42.7 2.0 7.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.0 6.7 13.5 84.2 47.0 43.3 1.1 9.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.6 14.9 84.1 45.9 44.1 2.6 6.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.2 19.0 103.0 60.0 47.1 5.7 9.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.6 10.7 70.8 46.0 40.0 0.5 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.5 13.6 81.7 47.5 43.3 2.5 6.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.1 11.3 83.2 52.9 40.8 2.1 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.5 19.1 104.7 58.9 49.6 2.9 6.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.4 5.5 12.5 90.0 54.0 41.9 3.6 4.6 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.7 20.8 104.2 57.3 49.7 3.5 8.4 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.4 13.1 85.7 48.1 42.5 1.8 5.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.3 12.0 85.2 52.5 42.2 2.5 4.4 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.9 6.8 14.1 94.7 55.7 43.1 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.4 17.5 101.9 59.0 47.5 3.2 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.8 5.2 13.3 74.1 41.6 38.5 3.4 6.1 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.4 14.0 80.5 46.1 42.5 1.5 7.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.6 2.7 12.7 75.2 41.2 38.0 1.9 4.0 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.1 4.6 11.6 75.0 47.1 41.7 2.8 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.1 19.9 103.8 59.1 49.3 7.0 11.8 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 1.6 4.2 12.1 86.4 49.6 40.9 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------