***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 0.7 0.6 3.5 27.1 22.0 19.5 2.6 4.1 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 0.6 0.3 3.5 30.3 22.3 20.0 1.2 3.5 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 1.2 1.0 4.3 33.1 25.8 22.1 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 3.4 1.7 4.8 31.4 21.5 20.2 5.8 9.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 2.2 2.3 4.5 32.8 22.2 20.0 3.4 6.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 3.2 2.8 6.8 44.3 26.2 24.2 4.3 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 0.8 0.4 3.5 30.8 22.4 19.6 1.6 2.9 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 5.5 2.8 7.7 47.5 27.0 24.7 5.4 13.0 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 0.8 0.3 4.3 31.0 21.0 18.6 1.8 5.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 1.9 0.8 7.0 42.2 25.6 22.3 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.6 5.5 38.2 25.8 21.8 2.8 4.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 2.0 1.0 6.2 43.7 25.8 23.4 4.3 6.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.2 2.7 6.2 39.2 24.4 22.3 4.2 8.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 2.1 3.1 6.3 39.1 23.4 23.4 3.7 5.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.8 1.4 4.2 29.3 25.9 22.3 3.2 5.4 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 1.8 1.8 5.4 36.4 23.8 20.8 2.7 6.6 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 0.9 0.3 3.6 31.1 21.3 20.5 1.6 4.1 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 1.8 0.7 8.0 47.3 26.3 24.7 1.1 6.4 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 1.0 0.3 4.0 32.8 23.7 21.5 1.3 4.3 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 1.8 3.6 9.6 54.3 30.3 27.8 3.9 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 0.9 0.7 3.9 28.3 21.2 18.6 1.8 5.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 1.3 1.0 4.6 37.1 25.8 23.9 2.8 4.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 1.9 2.0 4.6 35.5 23.7 23.3 2.7 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 1.1 0.7 6.1 40.3 24.4 23.2 2.7 4.2 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 2.2 2.1 3.7 26.0 19.0 18.4 4.7 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 1.8 2.1 6.4 43.7 28.6 24.9 2.8 5.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 1.0 0.6 3.6 26.7 21.6 19.3 2.1 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.0 2.5 4.9 33.0 24.1 21.5 3.0 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 3.1 2.7 8.6 50.6 28.9 26.6 4.2 8.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 1.0 1.0 3.5 29.7 23.8 20.5 1.8 3.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------