***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.5 16.4 0.8 63.2 61.3 15.9 16.7 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.6 16.3 0.8 66.6 62.8 16.0 16.8 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.4 16.6 0.6 61.3 59.3 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.3 13.9 0.7 64.1 60.2 8.4 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.5 14.8 0.6 60.9 57.9 16.1 17.3 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.4 12.8 0.4 57.5 54.9 14.8 16.2 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.8 17.3 16.3 0.9 67.0 63.0 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.6 13.2 0.5 59.2 56.5 3.5 4.9 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.0 15.4 0.6 60.8 57.8 15.6 16.7 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.3 14.0 0.5 59.1 56.1 15.8 16.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.4 14.8 0.5 59.7 56.9 15.9 17.0 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.8 14.1 0.5 61.4 57.8 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.5 13.9 0.4 58.9 55.9 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.4 15.3 0.6 59.4 57.8 16.2 16.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.0 18.2 15.4 0.8 68.4 62.7 15.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.7 18.0 14.3 0.5 59.9 56.9 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.7 16.1 0.9 66.6 63.5 15.3 16.2 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.2 13.5 0.4 58.2 55.6 15.3 16.3 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.4 16.5 0.8 65.2 62.2 15.7 16.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.2 11.1 0.5 60.1 56.4 9.8 11.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.4 16.2 0.6 61.1 58.0 16.0 16.6 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.6 16.2 0.9 66.1 63.5 16.0 16.6 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.8 16.5 0.8 64.2 61.5 16.0 16.8 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.9 15.2 0.5 58.2 56.6 15.9 16.4 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.7 15.0 0.7 63.1 60.1 16.1 16.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.5 13.5 0.9 69.0 62.9 15.1 16.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.5 15.8 0.7 63.9 60.9 16.0 16.7 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 17.1 17.5 14.4 0.7 63.0 59.5 16.0 16.7 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.8 12.7 0.5 57.8 55.7 10.1 11.1 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.4 16.4 0.8 65.7 62.3 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------