***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 18.6 19.2 18.1 1.3 68.1 60.8 17.5 18.3 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.9 18.0 1.4 68.4 60.8 16.5 18.7 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.6 18.3 1.3 65.8 60.3 16.8 18.7 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.6 16.0 1.2 63.4 59.5 9.3 10.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.1 16.6 1.2 64.2 59.3 16.8 18.4 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.5 14.4 0.9 61.5 56.1 15.6 16.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 18.6 19.4 18.0 1.4 69.9 60.6 16.6 18.2 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.0 15.0 1.1 63.0 58.1 3.9 5.3 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.6 16.9 1.2 64.0 59.3 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.7 15.8 1.2 63.0 58.4 16.6 18.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.5 16.4 1.2 64.6 58.7 16.9 17.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.7 16.0 1.2 64.1 58.6 15.4 16.8 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.3 19.1 15.2 1.1 63.9 58.2 16.6 17.7 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.8 16.8 1.3 63.5 59.5 16.8 18.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 18.4 18.6 16.7 1.2 64.3 59.7 16.3 17.9 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.8 19.1 15.9 1.1 64.9 58.5 16.7 18.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 18.3 19.3 17.8 1.4 69.8 61.0 16.2 17.8 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.2 15.4 1.2 62.6 58.4 16.5 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.5 18.1 1.4 67.3 60.8 16.4 18.8 19.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.4 13.3 12.9 1.2 62.4 58.4 10.6 11.9 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.6 19.2 17.7 1.2 64.3 59.5 16.7 18.1 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 19.1 20.0 17.8 1.4 69.1 61.0 16.7 18.6 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 19.2 19.8 18.2 1.4 66.2 60.6 16.7 18.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.5 19.2 16.8 1.3 63.3 59.2 16.5 18.1 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 18.6 19.6 16.6 1.3 66.6 60.3 16.7 18.1 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.6 18.3 15.4 1.5 67.5 61.7 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.6 17.4 1.3 67.7 60.7 16.7 18.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.8 16.2 1.1 63.6 58.7 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.3 14.6 1.2 63.1 58.4 10.9 12.7 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.6 18.0 1.4 68.0 60.8 16.5 18.6 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------