***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.2 16.0 -0.1 49.8 49.4 14.3 16.2 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.6 15.8 -0.1 50.0 49.3 14.7 16.6 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.6 16.1 -0.3 47.4 48.0 15.2 16.8 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.4 8.9 14.1 0.0 50.3 49.6 7.5 8.9 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.9 14.6 -0.3 47.3 47.8 15.5 17.3 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 14.3 16.3 12.9 -0.1 52.0 49.4 14.6 16.2 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.9 15.8 -0.1 51.9 49.6 14.5 16.6 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.2 13.0 -0.3 46.7 46.8 3.2 5.3 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.3 14.8 -0.4 46.0 47.2 15.2 16.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.7 15.9 13.6 -0.4 45.7 46.5 14.9 16.3 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 15.1 16.9 14.4 -0.3 47.8 47.5 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.3 16.6 14.1 -0.1 48.4 48.1 13.9 16.8 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 15.1 17.2 13.5 -0.1 49.6 48.9 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.9 14.5 -0.5 46.0 46.4 14.1 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.7 15.2 0.3 53.9 52.4 15.1 16.4 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.3 14.1 -0.1 49.1 48.6 16.0 17.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.0 15.6 -0.1 51.1 49.2 13.7 16.0 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 14.2 15.4 13.2 -0.6 43.3 45.6 14.2 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.6 15.9 -0.1 48.9 49.0 14.5 16.6 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.8 10.8 10.6 -0.5 42.4 45.4 9.8 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.6 15.6 -0.4 46.3 47.4 15.0 16.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.6 15.6 -0.1 50.4 48.9 14.3 16.5 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.4 16.0 -0.2 48.0 48.6 15.0 16.6 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.6 14.5 -0.5 43.7 46.1 14.5 16.3 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.4 14.6 -0.1 48.7 49.4 14.9 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 14.9 17.9 13.7 0.5 57.7 53.5 15.0 17.1 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.4 15.4 -0.1 50.0 49.5 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 15.6 17.1 14.5 0.0 50.9 49.9 15.2 16.9 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.7 9.8 12.2 -0.6 42.4 45.1 8.6 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.7 15.9 -0.1 50.0 49.2 14.4 16.7 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------