***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.7 15.2 0.9 60.9 61.4 13.7 15.4 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.0 17.3 15.5 1.2 64.8 64.8 15.3 15.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.8 16.9 15.3 0.8 60.3 59.4 15.0 16.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.8 8.7 11.9 0.9 58.7 59.1 6.0 8.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.6 13.6 0.6 60.7 58.4 14.7 16.2 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.7 11.1 0.2 54.9 53.1 12.6 14.3 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.6 15.3 1.2 64.6 65.0 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.1 11.7 0.5 57.4 56.7 2.2 3.3 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.7 14.6 0.7 60.7 58.8 14.5 15.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.5 12.8 0.5 57.1 56.2 14.3 16.0 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.5 13.9 0.4 56.4 55.9 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.6 12.6 0.5 57.7 56.7 13.3 15.1 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.1 13.2 0.2 55.1 53.6 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.9 14.8 0.8 59.4 59.2 15.0 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.2 14.2 0.9 56.3 58.3 13.8 15.8 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.8 13.1 0.3 57.0 55.0 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.0 15.2 1.3 67.7 66.8 14.0 15.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.3 12.2 0.6 58.9 56.9 14.2 15.7 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 16.9 16.7 15.5 1.1 64.0 64.0 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 11.9 11.4 10.1 0.7 62.6 59.5 9.2 10.0 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.8 15.3 0.7 59.2 58.5 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 16.8 17.1 15.5 1.4 68.1 67.1 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 17.2 16.8 15.6 1.1 62.2 63.1 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.7 14.4 0.6 58.0 57.1 14.8 16.1 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.1 14.0 0.8 58.4 59.7 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 17.0 16.0 11.6 0.6 62.4 59.0 13.8 15.1 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.7 14.7 0.8 60.1 60.9 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.1 12.8 0.7 56.1 56.9 13.5 15.5 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 11.2 11.7 0.6 59.4 58.0 9.1 10.0 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 16.9 16.8 15.4 1.1 62.3 63.7 15.3 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------