***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.3 5.8 -0.2 42.6 46.0 4.7 5.6 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.7 5.7 -0.1 44.7 48.8 4.6 5.0 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.6 6.0 0.0 45.0 49.3 6.8 7.8 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.7 3.5 0.1 49.2 50.7 0.8 1.7 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.5 3.8 0.0 45.4 48.9 3.2 4.8 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.7 1.8 0.1 50.1 52.1 2.8 3.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 5.7 -0.1 44.5 48.5 4.5 5.7 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -1.7 1.7 0.2 53.3 54.4 -2.4 -1.8 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.3 4.0 0.0 45.9 50.3 4.1 5.6 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.6 2.5 0.1 50.2 52.9 4.4 5.6 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.4 3.3 0.1 51.6 53.0 4.2 5.4 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.2 2.5 0.1 50.1 52.1 3.2 4.2 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.8 2.2 0.0 48.1 48.9 3.8 4.8 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.8 4.0 0.1 49.0 52.4 4.9 5.8 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.7 4.7 0.2 51.9 53.1 5.2 5.6 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.8 2.8 0.0 48.2 50.4 4.8 5.9 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.6 5.6 0.0 45.9 50.1 4.8 5.8 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.3 2.0 0.2 51.0 54.3 2.5 3.3 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.3 5.7 0.0 46.4 49.8 4.2 5.4 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 51.8 54.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.2 5.3 -0.1 44.6 48.8 4.2 5.6 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.9 5.6 0.1 49.8 52.2 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.0 5.6 0.1 49.8 51.5 4.2 5.0 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.0 3.9 0.1 49.3 53.0 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.0 4.7 -0.2 42.9 46.1 4.6 5.7 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.5 1.9 0.1 52.2 53.4 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 5.3 -0.2 42.0 45.0 5.0 6.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.3 3.9 0.1 50.6 52.1 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.5 1.3 0.2 53.3 55.3 1.4 2.4 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.9 5.8 -0.1 45.4 48.6 4.7 5.9 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------