***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.0 6.3 -0.3 46.1 46.7 4.8 6.3 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 5.2 6.0 -0.3 42.0 46.9 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.8 7.7 6.3 -0.2 44.6 47.6 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 0.0 2.0 3.9 0.0 50.0 51.0 0.7 2.0 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.7 5.8 3.9 -0.1 48.2 49.7 3.1 5.9 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.5 2.1 0.1 48.5 51.8 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.0 5.9 6.0 -0.3 41.9 46.8 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.3 1.8 -0.1 43.8 49.7 -2.5 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.0 4.2 -0.1 48.0 49.5 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.0 2.7 -0.1 45.6 49.6 4.5 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.0 3.3 0.0 47.8 50.8 4.3 6.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.7 2.6 0.0 46.8 50.7 3.3 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.6 2.3 0.0 49.3 51.5 4.2 5.6 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.7 6.4 4.2 -0.1 48.5 48.9 5.0 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.6 5.2 0.2 53.7 53.2 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.8 2.9 0.0 50.3 51.6 5.0 6.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.0 5.9 5.9 -0.3 43.4 46.6 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.4 2.0 -0.1 45.2 49.3 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 5.6 6.0 -0.2 43.0 47.4 4.7 6.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 41.1 48.4 0.3 1.6 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.6 6.2 5.5 -0.2 47.1 47.9 4.0 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.2 5.7 5.7 -0.2 45.2 47.4 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.6 5.6 5.9 -0.1 45.8 48.4 4.3 5.7 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.2 4.0 -0.1 46.3 49.3 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.2 5.0 -0.2 47.7 47.9 4.2 6.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.5 5.5 2.2 0.2 50.9 54.1 4.4 5.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.5 6.0 5.7 -0.2 46.3 47.4 4.0 6.3 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.0 4.3 0.1 52.2 52.3 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.7 2.3 1.3 -0.2 42.8 48.8 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.4 5.6 6.1 -0.3 42.3 46.9 4.8 6.4 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------