***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 6.3 6.2 5.9 0.4 58.5 56.3 4.6 6.1 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.9 6.0 5.9 0.5 58.6 58.3 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.3 8.6 6.2 0.5 62.3 58.8 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.6 2.7 3.5 0.5 60.8 57.8 1.2 2.2 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.6 4.0 0.4 58.1 56.6 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 3.6 3.6 1.7 0.5 55.7 56.6 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.0 5.9 5.8 0.5 58.4 57.8 5.3 5.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -1.5 1.7 0.5 58.1 58.3 -2.3 -1.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.9 4.1 0.5 59.0 58.8 4.6 5.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.0 2.6 0.5 58.4 58.7 4.4 5.8 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.6 5.8 3.4 0.5 58.6 59.0 4.3 5.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 4.0 4.0 2.5 0.4 55.5 56.6 2.8 3.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.9 2.4 0.3 55.4 55.9 3.9 4.8 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.2 6.6 4.2 0.7 61.8 61.2 5.0 5.9 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.5 7.0 4.8 0.6 62.3 60.5 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.0 2.9 0.4 56.2 56.5 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 6.0 6.2 5.8 0.6 59.3 59.0 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.4 2.1 0.6 59.8 59.3 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 5.9 6.2 5.9 0.6 60.5 59.2 4.7 5.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.6 58.5 57.7 -0.3 0.4 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.9 5.4 0.5 59.5 58.6 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.8 5.8 0.7 61.7 60.5 4.4 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 5.4 5.9 5.7 0.6 63.2 60.9 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.3 4.1 0.6 61.4 60.4 4.0 5.5 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.9 4.9 0.3 55.1 55.0 4.5 5.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.8 2.0 0.5 58.2 57.7 3.6 4.5 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.7 6.9 5.4 0.3 55.2 54.7 5.2 6.4 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.1 4.4 3.9 0.6 61.9 59.2 2.8 3.8 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.1 1.4 0.6 58.9 59.4 2.2 2.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 6.3 6.3 6.0 0.5 59.5 58.3 5.5 6.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------