***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 65.5 99.4 130.6 245.6 99.0 92.8 35.5 46.1 63.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 58.2 128.1 122.1 258.2 100.0 93.5 26.1 37.9 46.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 70.0 134.3 126.2 242.4 99.3 92.4 43.8 49.0 66.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 86.1 132.1 170.7 280.9 99.9 96.3 60.9 67.8 74.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 73.9 135.3 144.1 251.1 99.5 94.6 43.5 51.1 65.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 75.9 92.3 159.3 243.9 99.8 96.2 35.4 44.3 69.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 59.3 143.9 115.9 247.9 99.9 92.5 22.2 37.3 54.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 105.0 150.4 156.1 244.1 100.0 95.7 67.8 79.6 90.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 69.0 134.7 142.8 244.4 99.4 94.4 37.3 50.3 59.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 80.0 120.1 155.4 239.2 99.8 94.9 45.2 63.6 79.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 74.9 121.1 147.5 254.4 99.9 95.4 39.9 52.8 69.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 66.4 138.8 147.6 253.3 100.0 96.2 36.1 47.3 60.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 78.8 142.8 159.2 249.6 99.9 95.6 44.4 56.1 66.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 86.9 114.5 153.3 228.4 99.3 92.7 53.5 66.8 74.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 76.5 131.6 170.8 300.3 99.8 96.9 39.4 46.6 62.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 70.9 124.0 153.8 257.2 100.0 95.5 42.3 54.1 63.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 53.5 121.7 106.2 230.2 99.5 88.4 24.9 37.8 50.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 67.4 127.9 161.2 235.3 99.9 94.2 39.8 49.7 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 65.0 157.4 127.5 260.8 99.8 94.0 27.6 38.9 57.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 72.3 112.3 181.5 245.6 100.0 94.9 43.0 49.4 64.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 70.2 107.4 136.7 249.2 99.4 93.3 36.3 42.3 61.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 53.9 108.1 117.0 237.9 99.3 89.0 32.8 43.6 49.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 63.2 107.6 131.8 251.8 99.4 93.5 39.2 46.5 57.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 73.4 123.8 143.8 230.5 99.3 92.2 44.7 63.0 66.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 62.5 127.5 150.2 252.0 99.1 93.3 46.9 51.3 58.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 67.1 117.8 155.0 252.4 99.9 96.3 40.2 48.7 61.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 69.6 107.5 138.5 246.3 98.8 92.7 43.1 48.4 62.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 72.6 100.0 171.4 287.5 100.0 96.8 41.3 49.2 58.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 103.5 137.1 165.7 235.3 99.9 94.0 54.5 70.3 79.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 61.2 100.4 124.8 256.9 99.8 94.2 25.1 34.3 53.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------