***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.1 15.7 101.1 56.3 49.6 5.3 8.8 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.3 14.1 103.6 59.5 50.7 5.2 8.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.6 15.7 15.7 104.2 59.7 49.9 5.6 9.4 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 11.6 16.7 15.9 96.8 57.4 48.2 11.9 15.9 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.9 14.9 16.2 101.5 55.9 49.4 7.3 12.6 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.5 11.6 17.0 95.1 54.7 48.7 7.9 10.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.4 14.5 108.5 61.6 51.9 4.4 6.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 17.9 25.4 17.7 97.6 55.6 49.5 18.4 24.0 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 9.0 18.9 17.4 104.5 57.7 49.8 6.9 14.4 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.0 18.4 19.6 104.6 58.1 50.5 9.8 16.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.9 13.1 15.6 100.0 54.9 49.8 9.2 12.4 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.1 14.9 93.6 53.1 48.2 9.4 14.2 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 19.5 18.1 16.9 96.8 53.8 48.4 11.5 17.4 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.0 24.5 20.9 109.0 61.4 52.3 7.6 14.6 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.4 14.5 15.0 96.8 59.5 48.7 6.7 11.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.6 15.6 96.9 53.8 48.4 10.2 13.9 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 10.3 14.2 108.1 60.1 50.2 3.4 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 18.1 21.5 108.9 60.8 51.4 9.5 15.5 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.7 14.5 102.8 60.2 51.1 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 15.2 21.0 100.4 57.0 49.8 8.6 14.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.8 16.5 16.3 104.3 57.7 49.7 6.3 15.3 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.9 14.8 104.5 60.6 50.4 3.1 8.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.6 13.1 15.7 104.5 59.8 51.8 3.8 9.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 9.5 21.0 19.8 110.8 62.0 51.5 10.1 17.9 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 6.0 12.4 17.2 99.6 56.4 49.6 6.5 11.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.2 16.1 99.1 56.8 50.5 5.7 11.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.8 16.5 100.3 56.8 50.0 5.1 7.4 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.9 15.1 93.4 56.7 47.2 6.1 9.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.7 22.1 21.5 108.0 60.7 51.9 14.4 20.1 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.3 14.8 105.0 60.3 51.6 3.7 9.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------