***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 24.1 48.8 41.1 317.9 96.9 85.2 5.8 12.2 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 16.1 62.1 37.5 330.4 99.1 84.4 4.1 9.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 21.8 41.5 39.4 318.1 97.5 84.6 7.3 10.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 29.5 64.1 53.2 355.5 99.0 85.3 14.7 19.0 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 30.6 45.4 45.7 316.3 97.2 84.2 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 24.7 41.5 51.3 298.4 96.2 83.8 7.2 14.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 14.7 59.3 36.3 315.1 98.9 83.8 4.2 8.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 30.5 64.0 48.6 312.7 98.3 85.9 20.2 24.0 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 23.3 36.1 44.4 295.8 96.2 83.2 7.9 15.5 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 26.4 44.0 48.1 294.9 97.2 84.9 12.8 14.7 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 24.5 63.9 45.6 323.1 98.0 85.2 9.5 16.3 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 23.8 71.1 45.6 322.7 98.1 85.5 7.4 13.4 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 25.8 55.4 49.8 311.9 97.9 85.1 11.0 15.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 28.7 41.2 47.6 294.5 97.0 83.9 12.8 19.4 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 23.8 57.6 53.3 383.6 98.9 85.8 4.5 14.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 23.9 59.9 47.7 318.6 97.7 84.7 7.9 14.6 20.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 16.8 48.8 34.0 303.3 97.4 82.6 4.9 7.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 24.1 33.7 49.3 285.8 97.2 84.7 11.6 14.9 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 21.8 64.9 39.1 336.4 99.4 85.0 7.7 11.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 18.0 49.8 57.0 307.8 98.6 84.7 7.4 14.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 20.4 41.8 42.7 314.2 96.7 84.0 8.1 13.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 18.9 63.7 36.7 306.9 96.8 82.9 3.8 10.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 23.8 48.1 40.8 332.1 99.0 85.2 9.4 13.3 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 22.8 33.0 44.5 294.2 97.1 84.1 11.7 15.0 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 22.7 49.6 48.1 326.5 98.1 85.1 10.0 16.1 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 23.1 50.7 49.5 326.0 97.8 83.9 10.0 13.1 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 27.3 51.6 44.1 317.4 97.5 85.2 8.8 13.8 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 29.1 57.1 53.3 355.4 98.7 85.0 7.0 11.9 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 35.2 49.5 51.0 290.0 97.8 84.6 16.7 20.6 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 15.1 50.6 38.3 327.7 99.1 85.2 5.8 10.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------