***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 14.2 32.7 62.4 516.1 99.8 94.6 2.1 5.4 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 13.8 29.5 59.5 558.1 100.0 95.2 1.9 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.5 39.6 61.0 515.3 100.0 94.5 1.9 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 18.2 34.0 89.0 701.7 100.0 98.0 5.8 8.4 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 17.8 38.9 69.8 555.7 100.0 96.4 3.1 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 10.6 30.4 79.3 564.2 100.0 97.5 2.3 4.9 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 12.4 29.8 55.7 533.4 100.0 95.4 0.9 4.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 18.1 75.2 75.7 544.9 100.0 96.5 4.9 12.9 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 14.5 27.2 68.5 533.4 100.0 95.3 3.3 5.0 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 13.2 33.7 73.9 531.6 100.0 95.8 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 11.2 32.1 73.5 544.4 100.0 96.8 2.7 5.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 15.1 32.1 75.6 571.8 100.0 96.9 1.7 4.2 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 11.1 34.2 82.4 586.0 100.0 97.0 2.5 5.9 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 12.9 31.7 71.1 450.4 99.9 94.4 4.0 7.8 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 7.7 26.8 91.1 775.9 100.0 99.0 1.5 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 9.9 37.5 78.7 588.3 100.0 97.4 2.8 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 9.7 33.6 45.3 431.7 99.3 91.8 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 14.4 22.0 75.4 492.7 100.0 94.0 2.5 4.4 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 12.8 29.3 63.5 569.2 100.0 95.1 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 12.4 32.1 82.4 485.4 100.0 95.2 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 14.8 27.6 64.9 537.7 100.0 95.1 1.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 11.2 24.7 53.2 472.0 100.0 92.4 2.6 4.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 13.0 20.3 65.5 533.5 100.0 94.4 2.7 6.1 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 11.1 30.2 68.0 466.9 100.0 93.9 2.4 5.3 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 14.5 40.5 71.4 537.9 100.0 94.8 3.4 6.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 13.9 38.1 80.5 558.3 100.0 96.9 1.7 4.6 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.6 27.8 65.9 515.2 100.0 94.6 1.4 5.9 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 11.6 34.7 91.4 746.1 100.0 98.6 1.5 3.8 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 19.1 45.9 76.9 464.1 100.0 94.6 6.3 7.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 10.7 26.2 61.6 565.7 100.0 95.5 1.9 4.4 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------