***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 14.1 16.4 129.9 70.8 58.4 2.7 3.0 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.1 12.1 15.9 136.7 69.6 62.0 1.5 4.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.5 10.8 15.0 118.2 67.7 56.1 2.9 5.0 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 12.5 18.2 108.9 64.4 49.4 5.8 10.5 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.0 15.9 110.8 66.1 51.6 2.4 5.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.2 9.0 16.3 100.9 58.1 45.9 4.9 7.8 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.2 9.5 14.6 128.1 66.9 59.6 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.8 18.7 16.9 103.4 59.1 49.5 5.7 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.8 9.8 16.0 114.9 67.9 52.8 1.3 4.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.9 17.0 106.9 62.5 50.6 2.4 8.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 12.6 16.0 108.9 62.5 50.9 2.3 4.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.5 15.7 105.7 60.3 49.8 2.6 8.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.0 17.6 17.0 103.9 61.9 48.1 4.7 11.3 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 18.3 17.4 109.0 62.0 53.3 5.5 12.6 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 16.0 17.0 108.4 65.5 50.4 2.2 5.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 13.9 16.8 109.4 63.1 50.0 2.4 7.6 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.8 13.3 118.0 63.5 57.6 1.8 4.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.1 18.2 112.6 65.3 51.7 2.0 8.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.5 13.6 16.3 136.1 71.5 61.3 1.7 7.5 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.0 21.0 122.8 66.6 54.6 5.5 9.8 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.3 9.4 15.7 116.2 66.8 54.4 2.0 4.7 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.6 16.8 15.3 129.8 70.1 60.8 2.1 8.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.6 15.9 124.5 68.3 57.5 3.6 10.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.8 15.7 106.7 62.7 52.6 3.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.8 17.4 122.0 67.6 56.8 3.3 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.1 8.7 16.0 102.6 58.7 47.5 3.1 5.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.3 12.6 16.9 129.3 68.8 59.0 2.5 4.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 12.0 17.5 107.9 63.7 48.4 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.8 19.3 18.9 116.7 66.8 53.0 6.0 10.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.5 15.9 133.1 69.9 60.7 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------