***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.7 17.4 15.9 0.6 62.2 58.1 15.7 16.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 17.0 17.0 15.6 0.4 56.9 54.9 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.9 16.4 0.8 65.3 60.6 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.1 13.3 0.6 62.9 57.3 8.2 9.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 18.1 18.2 14.8 1.0 67.4 62.8 16.2 17.1 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.5 13.3 1.5 76.5 69.7 14.9 16.2 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.7 16.7 15.4 0.3 55.5 54.0 15.8 16.6 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.8 13.3 1.1 67.2 64.5 3.8 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 17.6 17.6 15.5 1.0 67.3 63.6 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 17.7 17.9 14.2 1.2 67.3 65.0 15.9 16.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 17.9 18.0 15.0 1.2 69.7 65.7 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.2 14.2 1.1 70.0 65.6 15.0 16.3 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 18.1 18.3 14.3 1.3 74.2 67.9 15.9 17.3 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 17.7 17.9 15.3 0.9 66.5 62.0 16.0 16.5 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.2 14.4 0.3 57.7 53.7 15.7 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 18.6 18.7 14.5 1.2 71.5 66.1 16.1 17.6 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.2 15.2 0.3 53.8 52.7 15.2 16.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.5 13.7 1.1 67.1 64.0 15.3 16.3 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 17.0 17.1 15.9 0.6 60.0 57.2 15.6 16.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.3 12.1 11.0 0.8 62.5 60.7 9.8 10.9 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 17.0 18.0 16.1 0.9 65.7 62.0 16.0 16.8 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 16.9 16.7 15.4 0.4 55.7 54.2 15.7 16.6 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.9 16.2 0.8 65.3 60.7 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.8 15.4 1.1 68.1 63.5 15.9 16.2 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.6 14.7 0.7 63.9 58.7 16.0 16.7 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 17.3 17.4 13.4 1.3 75.0 68.8 15.2 16.7 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.3 15.3 0.6 62.3 57.9 15.9 16.8 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.6 13.9 0.6 63.1 58.2 15.8 16.9 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.5 12.1 12.8 1.0 64.6 62.6 9.9 11.2 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.8 17.1 15.7 0.5 59.2 56.3 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------