***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 16.6 17.7 16.7 -0.1 52.3 49.2 16.6 17.5 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 16.5 18.1 16.3 -0.2 50.1 48.1 16.6 18.1 18.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 15.9 17.9 17.1 0.1 54.1 50.3 17.0 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.5 14.8 0.1 55.2 50.0 9.5 10.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 16.2 17.8 15.5 0.2 55.4 51.2 16.9 17.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.7 13.6 0.2 57.1 51.3 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 16.0 17.4 16.3 -0.3 48.7 47.4 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.0 14.0 0.3 55.9 52.1 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.4 15.9 0.2 55.3 51.5 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.8 14.8 0.3 55.8 52.1 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.8 15.4 0.3 56.3 51.9 16.4 17.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 14.9 17.1 15.0 0.3 57.4 52.2 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.7 18.1 14.3 0.3 57.6 51.9 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 15.6 18.2 15.7 0.2 54.1 51.3 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.4 15.4 0.0 53.9 49.0 16.5 17.3 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 18.5 18.4 15.0 0.3 56.9 51.9 17.2 17.8 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 15.6 17.0 16.1 -0.3 47.7 47.4 16.0 17.1 18.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 15.5 17.5 14.5 0.3 56.1 51.9 15.4 17.2 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 16.2 17.7 16.6 -0.1 51.4 49.4 16.6 17.6 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.8 12.0 11.7 0.1 54.0 50.9 9.8 11.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.7 16.6 0.1 55.0 50.9 16.4 17.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 16.3 17.7 16.2 -0.2 48.3 48.4 16.5 17.8 19.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 16.2 18.1 16.9 0.1 52.9 51.1 16.9 18.1 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 15.1 17.9 15.8 0.2 56.0 51.6 16.3 17.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 16.3 17.8 15.3 0.0 54.1 49.4 16.3 17.5 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 15.2 17.2 14.1 0.3 57.8 52.2 15.7 17.0 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 16.1 17.7 16.0 -0.1 52.2 49.1 16.2 17.6 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.1 15.1 0.1 55.1 50.4 16.4 17.8 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 10.0 12.2 13.5 0.3 55.7 51.8 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 16.0 17.6 16.4 -0.2 50.3 48.4 16.7 17.6 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------