***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.8 16.4 0.7 59.0 55.6 14.4 16.6 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.5 16.1 0.7 57.0 55.6 14.5 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.3 16.8 0.8 60.2 56.4 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.4 14.4 0.7 59.2 54.8 8.0 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.9 15.2 0.9 60.9 56.9 15.6 16.9 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.9 18.4 13.7 1.4 64.9 60.2 14.7 16.3 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.9 16.1 0.6 57.7 55.5 14.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.5 14.0 1.3 61.9 59.6 3.2 5.0 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.6 15.7 1.0 60.8 57.3 14.9 16.2 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.6 14.7 1.2 61.7 59.0 15.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.5 18.1 15.2 1.2 62.0 58.9 15.5 16.9 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.4 14.9 1.3 62.5 59.7 14.7 16.8 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.5 14.3 1.4 62.9 60.1 16.0 17.4 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.9 15.6 1.0 61.4 57.5 14.5 15.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.6 17.4 14.9 0.5 59.5 53.8 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.0 19.0 14.9 1.3 63.0 59.3 15.8 17.4 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.1 15.9 0.6 56.3 55.1 13.9 15.3 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.5 14.5 1.3 60.9 59.1 14.3 15.8 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.3 16.4 0.8 58.3 56.2 14.3 15.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.0 11.7 1.2 59.2 58.7 10.2 11.6 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.4 16.3 0.9 59.6 56.3 14.7 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.3 16.0 0.6 56.5 55.2 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.9 16.8 0.9 61.1 57.3 14.9 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.5 15.7 1.1 61.5 58.0 14.4 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.3 14.9 0.7 57.7 55.2 15.1 16.4 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.3 18.2 14.0 1.3 64.3 60.5 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 15.8 0.8 58.5 55.8 15.0 16.5 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.6 14.6 0.8 61.2 55.4 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.6 13.5 1.2 60.2 58.9 9.1 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.8 16.3 0.7 58.1 55.7 14.3 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------