***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 19.2 19.7 17.3 2.4 76.3 68.3 16.0 17.3 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 19.0 18.6 16.7 1.8 69.8 64.2 16.7 17.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 19.1 19.5 17.8 2.5 78.4 68.9 16.7 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 12.2 13.2 15.0 2.8 79.6 71.1 9.0 10.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 19.6 22.1 16.5 3.0 83.3 72.5 17.1 18.6 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 17.8 21.3 15.7 4.1 90.0 78.7 15.3 16.6 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 18.4 18.6 16.6 1.7 69.5 63.8 16.5 17.0 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 6.6 8.2 15.0 3.1 83.4 71.9 3.9 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 19.0 21.1 17.1 2.9 82.5 71.8 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 19.5 20.9 16.0 3.2 83.4 72.5 16.9 18.1 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 19.2 21.4 16.9 3.3 83.8 73.4 16.8 18.1 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 18.2 20.8 15.8 3.1 84.4 72.5 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 18.9 21.9 16.5 3.5 87.7 75.6 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 19.2 19.8 16.9 2.6 78.4 68.0 16.7 18.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 19.3 20.0 16.2 2.4 76.8 69.8 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 19.6 22.5 16.5 3.4 86.2 74.8 17.1 18.3 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.7 17.9 16.2 1.5 67.6 61.9 15.9 16.2 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 18.7 20.1 15.4 3.1 82.6 70.7 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 18.8 19.1 17.1 2.0 72.0 65.7 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.9 12.7 2.7 80.1 68.6 10.8 11.8 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 19.1 20.7 17.8 2.8 82.0 71.0 17.0 18.0 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 18.7 18.6 16.4 1.6 68.0 62.7 16.0 17.5 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 19.0 19.6 17.6 2.3 75.5 67.6 16.8 17.6 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 19.0 20.5 17.1 2.9 81.5 70.0 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 19.2 20.6 16.4 2.7 81.0 70.3 16.2 17.5 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 18.1 21.0 15.2 3.5 86.9 76.7 15.7 16.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 18.9 19.3 16.8 2.4 78.3 68.8 16.7 17.9 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 19.5 20.5 15.7 2.8 80.4 71.7 16.4 17.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.6 14.5 14.5 2.8 80.5 68.9 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 18.9 19.2 17.0 2.0 72.3 65.6 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------