***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.7 7.4 7.4 0.1 53.8 52.5 5.9 7.3 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.6 7.1 0.0 49.6 51.0 5.3 6.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 7.4 0.2 54.6 52.7 7.8 8.4 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.2 4.8 0.2 52.0 52.9 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.9 5.0 0.2 52.5 53.2 4.1 5.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.1 4.5 3.1 0.3 49.4 53.5 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.1 6.5 7.1 0.1 50.2 51.2 5.7 6.5 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -1.6 2.9 0.2 48.3 53.5 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.6 5.3 0.2 53.6 53.6 5.5 6.6 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.4 3.8 0.2 50.9 54.0 5.4 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.2 4.3 0.2 48.8 53.1 4.8 6.3 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.0 3.6 0.2 48.3 53.3 3.6 5.0 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.5 3.3 0.2 50.1 53.1 4.9 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.5 6.5 5.2 0.2 53.9 52.9 5.4 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.1 5.9 0.1 50.8 52.1 5.8 6.9 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.6 3.9 0.3 49.8 53.2 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.3 7.0 0.1 49.5 51.6 5.9 6.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.2 3.1 0.3 50.5 54.6 3.2 4.2 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.5 7.1 0.1 51.9 51.6 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 49.4 54.3 0.2 1.4 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.9 6.6 0.2 55.4 53.1 5.4 6.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.6 6.7 0.0 50.9 51.2 4.8 5.6 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.1 7.0 0.2 54.4 53.2 5.4 5.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.7 5.0 0.3 51.3 53.8 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.5 6.0 0.1 53.6 52.4 5.6 6.1 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.2 3.0 0.3 49.4 53.7 4.4 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.1 6.8 0.1 53.7 52.6 5.3 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 5.0 0.2 51.7 52.8 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.0 2.5 0.3 50.5 54.4 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.5 6.6 7.2 0.1 50.3 51.1 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------