***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 7.3 8.4 7.5 2.1 84.5 71.1 4.7 5.9 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.3 6.5 1.4 71.2 65.7 4.9 5.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.8 7.2 1.8 80.6 69.7 6.6 8.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 3.2 4.1 4.7 2.1 81.8 71.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 5.6 6.4 5.4 2.2 83.2 73.0 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 4.5 5.5 3.1 2.3 87.9 76.9 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.1 6.7 1.6 74.3 66.6 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -0.6 0.1 2.6 1.7 78.8 71.3 -2.2 -1.9 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.7 5.0 1.6 76.3 69.1 4.3 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.5 3.4 1.7 75.8 69.7 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.9 4.5 1.8 82.3 73.4 3.7 5.2 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 4.6 5.6 3.9 2.1 85.6 75.5 2.5 3.8 4.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 5.6 6.7 3.9 2.2 89.5 77.2 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 6.8 7.1 4.7 1.4 71.8 66.1 4.6 5.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.6 5.4 1.7 76.6 69.2 4.7 6.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 6.7 7.9 4.3 2.1 86.9 75.6 4.4 5.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.6 6.3 1.3 70.8 64.8 4.9 6.0 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 3.8 4.3 3.1 1.9 77.9 70.2 1.8 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.6 6.4 1.3 70.3 65.7 4.5 5.6 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 1.5 2.1 1.5 2.2 81.6 72.8 -0.2 0.4 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.4 7.0 6.5 1.9 80.8 70.5 4.2 5.6 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.0 6.1 1.1 67.7 63.7 4.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.0 6.2 1.3 70.5 65.6 4.1 5.2 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.8 4.7 1.5 74.6 67.4 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 6.5 7.4 6.7 2.3 84.3 72.5 4.3 5.1 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.8 3.8 2.6 92.3 79.9 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 7.5 9.2 7.3 2.4 86.3 72.4 5.1 6.5 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 5.2 6.1 4.9 2.0 82.1 71.5 2.2 3.6 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 3.4 3.5 2.2 1.8 74.4 69.4 2.1 2.6 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 7.0 7.1 6.9 1.6 74.8 67.2 5.2 5.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------