***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.1 3.5 -0.8 32.5 37.4 3.1 4.5 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.0 3.0 -1.1 29.3 33.6 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.2 5.5 3.7 -0.8 34.3 37.0 5.5 6.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 -1.6 -1.8 -0.1 -1.8 20.8 24.0 -1.0 0.7 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.2 1.2 1.9 -0.7 32.7 37.4 1.2 3.8 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.1 -0.8 -0.6 35.7 38.3 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.5 3.0 -1.1 32.6 34.4 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -5.0 -3.9 -0.8 -0.6 34.3 37.5 -3.9 -2.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.4 2.5 1.4 -1.2 27.8 31.3 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.7 2.3 -0.1 -0.9 31.1 34.3 3.0 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.5 1.6 1.1 -0.9 30.1 34.2 2.0 4.5 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.1 1.8 0.6 -0.5 37.0 40.9 0.8 3.3 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 4.1 3.1 0.8 -0.3 40.3 42.4 1.9 3.8 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.6 1.5 -1.0 33.2 35.1 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 2.2 1.9 0.8 -2.3 14.3 17.8 3.2 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.4 0.8 -0.8 32.9 36.1 3.4 5.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.1 2.7 -1.1 30.8 33.9 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 34.8 38.5 0.1 2.2 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.3 2.8 2.9 -1.1 28.6 32.7 3.4 4.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -0.1 45.0 46.1 -1.6 0.0 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.7 3.0 -0.9 32.1 35.2 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.3 2.1 2.8 -1.2 28.6 32.1 2.8 3.8 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.1 2.4 2.8 -1.1 28.7 31.4 3.0 3.8 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.1 2.7 1.5 -0.8 32.4 35.8 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.1 3.3 2.8 -0.9 32.6 36.3 3.4 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 3.5 3.2 0.8 0.2 48.4 50.1 2.1 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.8 3.0 3.4 -0.7 35.1 39.4 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 0.9 0.3 0.3 -1.8 21.1 24.7 1.6 3.0 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -0.7 0.2 -1.3 -0.5 35.6 39.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.3 2.9 3.2 -1.0 30.5 34.2 3.6 5.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------