***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 31.4 34.8 36.8 68.8 32.0 31.0 35.3 45.8 57.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 25.3 27.3 34.1 71.7 33.3 32.2 27.3 38.1 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 36.8 42.1 38.0 71.9 32.2 32.6 43.0 49.0 63.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 51.7 56.7 49.0 78.6 33.3 36.0 56.2 67.8 73.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 43.5 44.2 48.0 80.2 36.0 37.8 43.5 52.1 62.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 36.7 44.0 60.9 94.2 48.3 47.1 38.9 44.3 66.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 20.6 20.7 33.1 70.2 31.1 32.1 22.5 35.0 48.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 83.1 76.1 61.0 94.8 48.8 47.3 67.1 76.3 88.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 37.3 39.4 47.5 78.5 35.3 36.6 37.8 50.0 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 44.7 50.4 58.6 88.3 43.6 43.0 43.3 64.7 78.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 37.1 44.9 50.5 85.0 38.9 41.2 39.7 52.8 69.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 38.5 42.7 52.2 89.6 43.6 43.8 31.9 48.9 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 61.3 50.3 57.8 90.0 44.8 44.4 47.0 54.3 66.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 45.3 54.2 57.7 83.9 38.0 38.7 53.5 64.9 73.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 37.2 41.3 47.3 81.6 39.4 38.8 39.2 45.6 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 41.7 43.8 52.6 85.9 38.7 41.9 42.0 53.8 62.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 22.7 25.2 32.6 70.0 31.2 32.3 25.3 35.7 50.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 38.8 48.7 64.2 93.2 47.8 46.2 41.2 49.7 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 28.5 28.3 36.0 73.3 33.7 32.9 28.3 38.7 56.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 56.0 53.9 72.8 100.1 54.2 51.2 40.7 51.1 68.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 31.8 35.3 42.8 75.4 33.6 34.4 34.8 41.4 61.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 29.9 34.1 36.2 72.8 33.6 33.6 33.6 42.7 50.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 33.6 41.1 39.7 75.8 33.9 34.3 40.0 47.6 57.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 41.2 50.7 53.1 82.8 39.4 38.9 44.7 57.8 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 39.3 47.2 44.6 72.5 30.8 32.3 47.8 51.4 58.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 51.6 47.3 54.6 89.6 47.9 44.6 40.4 47.3 60.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 31.2 40.8 39.9 69.6 30.9 31.1 42.8 47.8 62.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 39.7 42.9 50.7 83.6 37.5 39.9 41.3 47.6 57.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 76.3 72.9 68.5 98.6 53.0 49.9 56.7 67.9 86.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 24.1 24.6 34.9 71.3 33.0 31.9 24.6 35.0 53.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------