***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.8 9.9 9.7 69.0 46.6 40.6 5.8 10.6 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.5 9.5 78.4 53.1 42.7 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.2 11.1 10.0 73.1 48.6 42.0 6.6 11.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 14.8 19.1 11.7 73.8 47.6 41.1 13.7 19.6 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.5 10.7 11.1 71.2 44.4 40.6 9.6 11.7 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.7 12.0 14.5 86.9 50.0 44.1 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.7 9.0 74.1 51.6 40.4 3.0 5.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.8 22.3 13.5 86.0 51.7 45.5 16.3 20.6 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.3 9.9 10.9 67.6 41.5 39.4 7.8 11.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.1 13.2 12.7 75.4 46.2 41.8 10.2 13.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.1 13.7 11.0 75.0 47.2 41.7 10.4 14.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.5 12.0 85.8 51.0 45.6 9.4 12.1 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 8.2 15.1 13.7 86.2 49.5 45.9 11.6 15.2 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 11.4 20.7 14.8 83.5 50.5 44.3 11.8 20.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 7.4 15.7 12.7 86.2 57.7 44.1 5.9 13.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 8.2 15.1 12.3 80.6 49.2 44.0 10.0 15.4 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.4 9.2 76.4 53.3 41.5 4.9 9.6 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.6 14.7 14.6 82.1 52.1 44.4 10.4 14.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.0 10.2 81.3 53.4 44.3 7.0 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.3 16.7 88.0 52.1 46.3 6.7 11.0 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.8 10.3 69.4 43.7 40.9 7.7 12.5 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.7 11.6 10.6 82.6 54.2 44.0 4.4 10.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.8 13.6 11.2 84.1 53.0 45.6 10.5 12.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.0 15.2 13.0 78.8 51.5 43.3 10.3 15.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 8.4 11.3 11.3 69.8 44.6 40.4 9.1 13.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 8.0 16.0 13.2 89.1 55.0 46.7 8.8 14.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.9 10.0 10.5 69.3 45.0 40.1 7.0 11.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 7.3 14.3 12.3 80.8 53.0 42.5 7.0 13.1 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 19.4 15.7 86.9 54.6 45.9 14.3 18.5 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.5 10.0 9.6 76.2 51.0 42.0 3.2 9.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------