***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.5 10.2 80.9 56.9 43.2 1.2 3.8 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.1 6.0 9.8 87.7 55.0 42.7 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.5 10.8 85.8 55.3 43.2 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.3 13.4 91.4 57.0 44.8 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.1 13.0 90.2 53.7 43.9 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.6 16.0 104.3 59.0 50.4 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.1 5.3 9.3 83.9 57.0 42.4 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.0 10.0 14.5 97.6 54.2 47.2 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.7 12.9 89.9 53.3 43.6 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.9 13.9 92.1 51.8 44.7 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.3 13.6 93.0 52.7 45.3 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.8 13.4 96.3 54.1 46.6 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.6 14.8 98.1 57.7 47.8 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.4 14.7 92.6 53.5 43.4 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.8 13.8 101.1 62.5 47.7 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.0 14.2 96.4 56.7 47.7 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.7 6.1 10.2 91.9 58.3 43.9 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.6 14.9 95.0 55.2 46.4 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.3 3.4 10.4 89.7 55.0 42.6 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.5 16.5 95.4 53.8 46.6 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.0 12.1 88.7 55.0 43.0 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.4 10.6 91.2 54.5 43.6 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.5 6.3 11.6 91.9 56.2 42.8 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.9 13.7 91.9 55.1 45.2 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.6 12.6 83.1 54.5 41.6 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.0 14.3 96.5 56.1 46.8 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.6 5.4 11.0 79.2 54.2 42.0 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.0 13.8 97.1 59.8 46.7 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.4 15.8 97.0 56.2 47.1 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.0 3.5 9.6 83.5 54.9 41.8 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------