***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.3 2.8 7.8 59.7 46.4 37.0 2.0 3.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.6 3.5 6.4 53.8 42.6 33.9 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.4 8.2 62.4 47.6 39.8 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.0 9.4 12.1 73.4 49.3 39.2 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.4 12.4 83.0 54.5 46.0 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.5 13.4 16.0 104.2 60.5 50.5 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.3 6.3 54.2 42.8 34.6 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 26.4 18.6 107.7 65.4 53.9 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.8 12.0 83.3 54.1 46.4 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.3 12.5 17.9 105.5 65.0 53.7 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.9 14.1 90.9 58.8 48.3 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.4 14.6 92.8 58.8 48.2 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.9 15.7 15.8 95.3 58.6 48.7 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.5 15.7 14.5 88.1 58.9 49.5 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.0 5.3 9.7 64.6 46.8 36.1 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.7 14.0 88.2 54.8 46.5 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.9 3.8 5.3 48.0 38.7 31.9 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.9 19.3 114.0 67.2 57.4 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.8 4.0 6.8 55.8 43.2 34.8 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 17.4 22.9 128.9 72.7 62.8 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.8 5.4 10.3 73.4 51.3 43.4 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.9 6.2 52.4 40.5 34.3 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.5 8.6 7.9 61.0 46.3 38.2 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.9 13.9 88.9 57.7 49.3 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.7 6.4 10.0 67.8 48.8 40.2 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.4 14.1 91.0 57.3 46.9 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.4 8.5 62.2 47.0 38.1 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.3 5.4 12.6 78.4 51.4 40.8 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 20.9 20.9 124.5 72.2 61.6 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.0 4.0 6.9 56.5 45.2 35.4 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------