***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.2 15.8 0.8 66.6 60.1 15.6 16.5 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.8 16.2 1.3 74.6 67.3 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.5 15.9 0.6 62.0 57.7 16.0 17.0 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.6 12.5 0.1 50.1 50.8 8.4 9.6 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 16.0 17.0 13.2 -0.3 45.0 45.3 16.3 17.2 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 14.8 15.6 10.9 -0.7 40.5 41.3 15.1 16.2 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 17.1 17.3 16.2 1.3 74.6 67.3 15.6 16.5 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.5 4.3 11.0 -0.9 37.9 39.0 3.7 5.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 15.6 16.7 13.9 -0.3 48.2 46.5 15.8 16.8 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 15.6 16.6 12.1 -0.7 41.4 41.4 15.9 16.9 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 15.8 16.7 13.1 -0.5 43.3 43.4 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 14.9 15.9 12.2 -0.6 42.4 42.3 15.0 16.3 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 16.0 16.8 12.1 -0.6 43.2 42.5 16.0 17.4 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.5 16.5 13.8 -0.3 43.8 46.0 15.9 16.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.5 14.3 0.6 61.6 58.4 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 16.3 17.1 12.6 -0.4 45.0 44.5 16.2 17.6 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.6 16.1 1.4 76.1 67.6 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.7 11.6 -0.7 39.5 41.0 15.3 16.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 17.3 17.5 16.2 1.1 71.0 65.0 15.5 16.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 9.7 10.3 8.8 -1.0 34.9 38.2 10.1 10.9 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 15.8 16.9 14.9 0.0 51.9 49.3 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.5 15.7 1.0 69.0 62.4 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.6 16.0 0.8 63.8 60.5 15.7 16.8 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 15.3 16.4 13.7 -0.3 45.3 45.7 15.8 16.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.7 17.2 13.9 0.2 56.7 52.7 15.9 16.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 15.3 16.5 11.5 -0.2 48.1 46.4 15.3 16.7 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.3 14.9 0.5 63.5 57.0 15.8 16.9 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.3 13.1 0.1 52.7 51.8 15.9 17.2 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 9.9 10.5 10.6 -0.9 36.9 39.3 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 17.2 17.4 16.2 1.2 71.8 65.7 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------