***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 18.1 18.2 17.9 1.3 67.7 62.1 16.5 18.0 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 18.3 18.4 18.2 1.9 72.6 66.9 16.2 17.6 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.3 18.5 18.1 1.3 66.1 61.7 16.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.9 15.1 0.6 60.5 56.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.9 18.1 15.5 0.4 57.1 53.7 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.4 13.2 0.2 55.2 52.1 14.9 16.3 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 18.1 18.2 18.2 1.9 72.5 66.6 15.6 17.4 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.5 13.6 0.1 52.4 50.8 3.6 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 17.8 17.9 15.9 0.4 56.4 54.0 16.2 17.5 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.8 17.9 14.6 0.2 53.6 52.1 16.0 17.6 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 17.8 18.1 15.2 0.3 55.3 52.9 16.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.3 14.7 0.3 55.3 52.7 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.9 17.9 14.0 0.3 56.6 53.1 16.7 17.6 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.2 15.8 0.5 56.3 54.1 16.5 18.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.9 16.1 1.0 64.3 59.9 16.0 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 18.3 18.2 14.8 0.4 57.6 54.0 16.8 18.0 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.9 18.0 18.1 1.9 71.2 66.4 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.4 14.2 0.2 54.7 51.7 15.5 17.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 18.2 18.3 18.3 1.8 71.1 65.7 15.7 17.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.9 11.2 -0.1 51.7 49.9 9.7 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 17.9 18.1 16.9 0.6 59.1 56.2 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 18.4 18.3 17.7 1.5 66.9 63.7 16.5 16.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.6 18.1 1.4 66.8 62.9 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 17.9 18.0 15.8 0.5 56.8 54.4 16.3 17.8 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.6 18.1 15.8 0.8 62.5 58.1 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.0 14.0 0.6 60.2 56.2 15.6 16.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 17.7 18.2 17.0 1.1 65.1 60.6 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 17.6 18.0 15.3 0.7 60.9 57.2 15.9 17.3 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.3 13.1 0.0 53.1 50.8 10.4 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 18.2 18.4 18.2 1.8 71.8 66.0 15.3 17.6 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------