***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.8 16.4 1.0 59.8 58.4 14.3 16.1 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 17.8 17.1 17.0 1.8 69.2 64.4 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 16.6 0.9 59.9 57.5 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.5 13.4 0.0 49.4 50.5 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.1 13.8 -0.2 47.6 48.6 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.6 15.4 11.3 -0.8 40.9 44.1 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 17.6 17.1 17.1 1.8 69.4 64.9 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.7 4.8 12.0 -0.5 45.7 46.3 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.8 14.3 -0.1 48.8 49.6 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.7 13.0 -0.4 47.2 47.8 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.3 13.6 -0.3 47.3 47.8 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.1 13.1 -0.3 46.4 47.5 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 18.3 17.8 12.3 -0.4 45.4 47.2 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.5 14.4 0.1 51.7 51.6 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.2 14.4 0.4 52.0 53.4 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.4 17.6 13.1 -0.3 46.7 48.1 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 16.8 16.4 17.1 2.0 71.3 66.2 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.6 15.8 12.6 -0.3 47.4 48.3 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 17.7 16.7 17.0 1.5 67.3 62.5 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.7 9.6 -0.6 45.4 46.3 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.0 15.4 0.2 52.5 52.2 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.3 16.6 16.7 1.6 67.8 62.9 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.5 16.7 1.1 62.1 59.0 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.6 14.3 0.0 50.3 51.1 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.1 14.4 0.4 54.8 54.3 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.3 12.5 0.0 48.3 49.9 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.2 15.6 0.9 59.1 57.6 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.3 13.6 0.0 49.0 50.3 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.4 11.6 -0.4 46.4 47.8 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 17.6 16.9 16.9 1.5 66.6 62.6 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------