***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.2 15.8 1.1 63.0 59.0 15.7 17.0 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.9 16.3 1.6 66.2 62.2 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.6 18.0 16.0 1.0 59.7 58.0 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.6 12.5 0.5 57.3 54.8 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.2 13.5 0.2 51.6 51.8 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.0 11.3 0.0 53.0 51.0 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.7 16.2 1.6 67.3 62.5 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.8 11.3 -0.3 45.5 48.2 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.3 14.3 0.3 51.9 52.7 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 16.1 17.3 12.5 -0.1 48.6 49.9 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 15.7 17.0 13.6 0.1 51.1 51.5 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.4 12.5 0.0 49.5 50.8 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.1 12.7 0.1 52.8 51.0 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.3 14.1 0.1 48.5 51.1 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.8 14.7 1.0 63.6 59.1 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 16.4 17.5 13.0 0.2 53.6 52.2 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.1 16.1 1.6 67.1 62.4 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.6 11.9 -0.2 47.0 49.4 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.8 16.2 1.4 64.0 60.9 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 10.3 11.3 9.1 -0.5 43.4 47.0 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.5 15.2 0.4 54.0 53.7 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.0 15.7 1.1 61.4 58.9 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.6 18.2 16.0 1.1 61.2 58.7 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.0 14.1 0.1 50.1 51.7 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.8 17.0 14.1 0.6 56.6 55.2 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.4 11.7 0.3 53.0 52.6 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.9 15.0 0.8 60.6 57.1 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.7 13.3 0.7 59.0 55.8 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.4 10.9 -0.3 43.4 48.2 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.9 16.2 1.4 65.0 61.5 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------