***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 12.8 14.0 13.0 -0.3 41.9 43.3 13.7 14.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.1 13.4 0.1 48.2 48.0 13.9 15.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 13.9 14.9 12.8 -0.7 38.0 39.8 14.1 15.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.3 5.2 9.0 -1.0 32.0 35.8 5.2 7.3 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 12.5 13.3 10.1 -1.7 24.8 30.2 14.4 15.7 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 11.7 11.7 7.6 -2.2 20.9 28.2 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.0 13.2 0.1 45.8 47.0 13.8 15.3 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 0.6 0.9 7.2 -2.7 20.8 26.0 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 12.9 13.2 11.2 -1.6 26.2 31.0 13.9 15.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 12.6 12.4 8.5 -2.6 21.1 26.4 14.3 15.6 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 12.1 12.9 10.1 -2.1 23.0 27.9 14.1 15.8 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 11.1 12.4 8.6 -2.2 22.5 27.8 13.8 14.9 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 12.2 12.5 9.5 -2.2 20.1 27.4 14.9 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 13.3 13.6 10.9 -1.9 27.6 30.2 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.3 12.2 -0.1 44.0 44.7 13.8 14.9 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 12.1 13.7 9.6 -2.0 22.7 29.0 15.1 15.6 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.1 13.0 0.1 44.5 47.2 13.3 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 12.1 12.0 7.6 -2.7 20.7 25.9 13.7 15.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.7 13.3 -0.1 45.2 45.9 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 6.5 6.1 5.3 -2.8 18.1 25.8 9.0 10.0 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 13.2 13.7 12.1 -1.4 29.1 33.1 14.2 15.6 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.2 12.7 -0.4 38.2 41.8 13.9 15.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.6 13.1 -0.4 39.7 42.5 14.5 15.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 12.9 13.8 10.6 -2.0 25.9 29.5 14.6 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 13.5 13.6 11.3 -1.0 30.1 35.8 14.0 15.4 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 12.4 12.6 7.9 -1.9 22.2 30.5 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 13.7 14.6 12.2 -0.6 35.0 39.6 14.5 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 12.9 13.1 10.2 -0.9 33.5 37.1 13.1 15.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 6.4 6.4 6.8 -2.8 19.3 25.4 9.0 10.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.8 15.2 13.4 0.0 47.5 46.9 13.9 15.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------