***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.7 6.1 -0.1 46.3 49.6 4.7 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.7 6.0 0.1 51.0 50.7 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.1 7.4 6.1 -0.1 44.7 48.8 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.3 0.8 3.3 -0.2 42.0 48.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.0 3.3 -0.5 37.2 44.7 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.3 1.2 -0.4 38.3 44.6 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.0 6.1 0.1 52.3 51.9 5.1 6.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.9 -2.4 1.0 -0.6 35.3 43.1 -2.5 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.5 3.5 -0.5 35.1 43.6 4.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 4.5 1.8 -0.6 34.6 43.0 4.4 5.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.4 2.6 -0.5 37.6 44.4 4.1 5.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.1 1.7 -0.6 35.7 42.6 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.2 1.1 -0.8 32.8 40.2 4.2 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.4 3.3 -0.7 36.9 42.0 5.2 5.8 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.8 4.5 -0.1 45.7 48.9 4.7 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.2 2.0 -0.5 37.7 43.5 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.3 6.0 0.2 55.3 51.8 4.9 5.8 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.4 2.7 1.1 -0.7 35.1 42.4 2.7 3.0 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.1 5.9 0.0 48.3 49.6 4.7 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.1 0.1 -1.1 -0.8 32.7 42.2 0.1 1.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.6 5.0 -0.4 39.8 45.7 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.3 5.7 0.1 52.0 50.5 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 4.9 5.6 -0.2 44.8 48.0 4.2 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.7 3.2 -0.5 37.5 43.6 4.5 5.1 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.4 4.7 -0.2 43.5 48.3 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.7 3.9 1.0 -0.7 32.5 41.2 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.6 5.5 -0.2 44.7 48.7 4.1 6.0 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.9 3.5 -0.2 42.0 46.8 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.8 1.4 0.5 -0.7 34.4 43.0 1.3 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.6 6.1 6.1 0.0 49.6 50.7 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------